jim sinclair - on gold

  1. 115 Posts.

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    Wed Jul 30, 2003
    Muslim Call to Thwart Capitalism BBC Reports
    Author: Jim Sinclair

    As reported by Mark McCullum of the BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation), a speaker at an Islamic conference in the Spanish city of Granada has called upon Muslims around the world to help bring about the end of the capitalist system. This call came at a conference titled "Islam in Europe" attended by a reported 2000 Muslims.

    The key speaker, Umar Ibrahim Vadillo of the organization Murabitum, said America's economic interests had become the religion of the world and that people slavishly adjusted their lifestyles to suit the capitalistic model.

    Actually he is not that far off the mark as the IMF and World Bank acting as if they were dollar salesmen from Washington have sold to the advanced as well as developing world an unofficial dollar standard for currency reserves that now has backfired badly. It seems that the developing nations consume all the ideas of the west that were among the worst of our creation. As a small example seeing Indian ladies in designer jeans riding motor scooters with their husbands driving with baseball caps on backwards look to me as if it is an obscene gesture to the memory of Shri-Shri Gandhi. The Indian society has been one of the few societies that has protected their cultural heritage against dissolving into the plastic world of the west. That is no more. India no longer exists in its major cities and now barely survives in the villages.

    I have told you in no uncertain words that I believe we are right in the 3rd World War in which the dollar is targeted for destruction. Actually who needs an enemy as we have constructed our own weapon of mass destruction in the form of over the counter derivatives. In truth capitalism did not win over communism. Communism just went broke first.

    I believe he makes my point when this speaker at the conference called upon all Muslims to stop using the US dollar. Do you want to go long in the US dollar for a technically rally? Not me. I will simply attempt sell the top when it occurs. If you hold dollars you hold the definitive target of Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden.

    This same speaker complimented the introduction of the Malaysian Gold Dinar to the world's economies calling it the most unifying event for Muslims in the modern era.

    Wed Jul 30, 2003
    Amazing Day in Gold
    Author: Jim Sinclair

    There was a harmony & symmetry in gold that I have rarely witnessed before in a one day session. Yes, the forces that would be injured by higher price of the metal are attempting to do their work, but I believe this time their will be trashed. Yes, stabilization forces caused a break under the Fibonacci support line in the $361 to $361.50 level and gold found its way directly to the next Fibonacci support line that acted like a trampoline with gold closing $3 above the Fibonacci trampoline. Gold had formed an Island Head and Shoulders formation and fell almost to the penny of the measured move, then formed an Island Triangle formation indicating the potential that gold will rise above the first neckline. Resistance now is at $361 to $361.50. The dollar actually did the reverse. It was like a musical Broadway show with all the participants on stage doing just the right thing at just the right time. This market is, IMO (in my opinion), going over $400. Even TNX had a technically harmonious day by a break out-pull back-move away. The latter two occurred today.

    Wed Jul 30, 2003
    Before You Think Dollar Rally
    Author: Jim Sinclair

    Think Dollar Fundamentals or
    "The Old Coots Have Done It Again!"
    The following charts are the major US dollar fundamental factors. All else is noise. This data recently published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve is contained in their monthly magazine titled "National Economic Trends. These publications are free for the asking either by going to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank's economic research web site or by calling and requesting them. Every gold community member could and should be watching those monetary and dollar causal fundamentals monthly. This way you become informed. Informed people have commitment and can stare down the opposition. Stare them down, refusing to be stampeded and you own them. Gold then roars over $400. This time I buy the weakness, but I am not selling until I get my price. May God protect me!

    This is the chart of the simple down channel of the US current Account expressed in terms of percentage of GDP. As the Current Account of any major trading nation reaches a deficit of 3% of GDP in a contained downtrend the currency becomes endangered of lower valuations. At 5% the currency will significantly adjust. It is assumed that for every 10% a currency changes in valuation the Current Account Deficit should correct itself by 1%. We are now seven months into a decline of the US dollar which is down by 21% from the high. As you can see the depreciation of the dollar has so far had no effect on the Current Account Deficit which in fact has accelerated the angle of its downtrend moving above 5% of GDP.

    This chart shows an interesting but disturbing potential down slanting multi-year Head and Shoulders indicating a potential expansion in numerical terms of 33 1/3% above the projected huge trade balance. As you can see the 25 year neckline is thoroughly trashed on the downside. In terms of percentage of GDP it projects to 16% which is a disaster for exporters.

    This chart looks at the Trade deficit in simple long term down channel terms. That is as close to a line hanging off a fishing pole as any significant major indicator can be of a major trading nation's deficit.


    If the Treasury can, in order to make the Administration look better, instigate a rally in the dollar over any period of time, it is a modern day miracle of spin city, ESF manipulation (pardon me, stabilization) and lack of fundamental understanding among those that trade currencies. The dollar depreciation hasn't affected the key economic outages as it should have. This leaves the Fed with nothing more being applied now other than the smoke and mirror of an equity market rally to reverse the international world wide business recession.

    Personally I am petrified that without economic leadership the world ship of states is headed for a second iceberg. The first was a bubble of outrageous expectations from tech stocks and down right criminal acts among the imperial CFOs of American industry. The second may be the hard reality of long term deflation & US zero bound interest rates coupled with outrageous central bank action in an attempt to keep the mob from stoning all the Federal Reserve banks and razing them. All because, as always, old rich coots send young men and women to the meat grinder made of financially motivated mismanagement of geo-politics and financial affairs that was devised to and in fact did give those rangy coots the big bucks in the first place.

    Wed Jul 30, 2003
    What's the Problem?
    Author: Harry D. Schultz

    Compliments of the Dean of Gold

    I am honored that the Dean of Gold, Harry D. Schultz, has permitted the presentation of the Advance/Decline line chart of the pure and pristine Schultz Gold Share Index. Note HDS's comment on the SGL. The recent pull back is simply the action of which markets are made. I have also published the SGI itself for consideration. Neither gold nor sound gold shares are acting in a manner that brings me concern.

    Thank you,
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