First I have to tell you that I think you have put me higher on...

  1. 5,184 Posts.
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    First I have to tell you that I think you have put me higher on the pedestal than I actually deserve as I am not knowledgeable enough in some respects to be in the position to address your questions.

    My foundation is rooted in economics, commercial and financial analysis, not finance, not charting , not options trading nor trading prowess. So I have shortfalls despite experience in some areas. So I will try my best to answer your questions but possibly not very well.

    Personally I have never shorted any single stock nor want to and only used Bear ETFs to hedge my long positions, but after I started introducing it on this thread, it soon became a tool of speculation to take advantage of the bear market. It worked for awhile until the bear was chased away and has become a less profitable trade. I am cognisant it is not meant to be a long term hold as I gathered that its price may never recover back to its previous high despite markets returning back to the lows - it beats me how that works.

    There are a lot of materials on gold & silver, you can view ***** , I get my materials from a variety of sources as I subscribe to a number of them. Gold to silver ratio at higher than 100:1 showed a longstanding disconnect between gold and silver and it was only the last month that more sophisticated investors started moving into silver and we saw the ratio breaking 100: 1 , and everyone got excited at a prospect of a silver parabolic move as it is commonly associated with. Silver gives greater volatility than gold but more treacherous in its decline as well. Gold tend to move inversely with USD which generally holds true as it tends to with equities as well but in recent times, we have seen gold move lower in tandem with a declining USD (causing a lower AUD gold ) as well as higher with higher equities. So the relationships do not always hold true all the way, as I also stated before a higher gold price despite higher equity prices does not bode well for equities. There is also a lot of speculation in gold /silver stocks so we should expect 3-6% moves either way on a daily basis- it has become somewhat of a recent norm that one day is good for gold and the next bad and on the day that gold does well, banks dont and vice versa. So all the sort of trades traders love but can be disconcerting for investors , however if we have a more measured position in precious metals, it allows one to be able to buy in more if and when the relic faces it occasional hiccups. But it certainly has a place in everyone's portfolio in the long run.

    El-Erian and Taleb are great . I follow Lance Roberts, Sven Henrich but also read generally. I find Zero Hedge to be particularly useful BUT only if one knows how to discern good articles from crap ones and I regularly feature the better ones on this thread. They are good especially on two aspects- Currency of news flow , if an event happens you can expect a post with commentary within half hour of its occurrence and second, access to views and charts from institutional research such as DB (Deutsche Bank), Goldman and the likes , previously only available to sophisticated investors.

    Sorry I dont use options nor know how to use them like puts and calls.

    Hope it does answer some of it.
 
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