No problem, I think I was misunderstood- I didn't want...

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    No problem, I think I was misunderstood- I didn't want discussion of Trump the personality as much in this thread but more on implications of his actions/policies, obviously there will be some overlap but just want to make sure we don't discuss about what we like or dislike about the man.

    As for the pessimism, I tell you this. In this thread, I just wanted to highlight the landscape, the underlying risks and my assessment of the risk-reward perspective. As I indicated, we are not in an enviable position -global economy is contracting, land mines everywhere (student loans asset backed securities (SLAB), systemic risk business models like Wework, bond downgrade danger, ETFs), ongoing geopolitical risks - but yes the market climbs a wall of worry as it did in the past although this time, our debt levels are way higher, central bankers have less leverage and we didn't have geopolitics to contend with in the past to make things worst. And like I mentioned, it can go only either way - we face the day of reckoning sooner or we can kick the can down the road again. But the danger is - if and when it implodes, this time would be big and the central bankers know they can ill afford to let the global economy slip up (but they are not capable to single handedly resolve a crisis).

    I am not suggesting people sideline the market altogether and forever- the opportunity cost of missing out on the market moving higher is not IMO that great if one knows where alternative places to park money (no, not gold and no, not fixed property either) but the risk of a downside would be greater. If I am wrong, I will be back as always, so I am not fixated to a view. Secondly as I expressed before, its not being in the market its about being in the correct stocks - e.g why be in BHP when the cycle is more likely to be down from now. And look at my previous post re: how some of the big cap stocks performed in the last 5 years despite being in good times - so we cannot generalise that being in the market will give us better returns than cash or alternatives- you must be in the correct stocks that move higher and being correct in buying/selling timing decision.

    I made the same caution during the last quarter 2018 meltdown and by virtue of being sidelined then, I was out of harm's way and did get back into the game in January when the coast became clear- that was when Opportunity Stocks came into play.

    But I know there are many with not only overexposure to equities, the imminent fall and magnitude of which they may not be prepared for and those with overexposure to a single or couple of wrong stocks. The reality is that few have undertaken risk management when trading/investing in stocks.
 
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