Iraqi "olive branch" will solve nothing, page-2

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    re: Iraqi Xerxes,

    I agree with much of what you have suggested.

    I, therefore, expect the Security Council to bend to Iraq's offer (akin to the League of Nations of old). In this way, the USA and the UK will either have to veto the SC's resolution, or abstain from voting. Most likely, it will be the latter.

    Claiming victory to common sense, the UN, together with the 3 other permanent powers will argue that the UN and the SC have secured a diplomatic victory for global peace.

    The weapons' inspectors will then return to Iraq and will begin making their inspections. They will, however, encounter difficulties in their travels, and become increasingly impeded in their ability to enter upon sites, or to carry out unfettered inquiries.

    There will again be sabre rattling in Washington which Iraq and the Arab League will dismiss as rhetorical war-mongering in support of the mid-term November elections.

    In the midst of all this, Russia will send in its Foreign Minister to broker a further truce. Saddam will agree to this. The inspections will resume, but will again stumble at all critical junctures encountered. This time round, however, Saddam will hold the weapons' inspectors hostage, whilst at the same time mounting a lightning strike on Israel, and against American interests in saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Gulf.

    Even before news of this is carried by Al Jeezeera, the coalition forces will respond in tandem, but their coventional response will not be sufficient to stop the Israeli's from responding with devastating might.

    Iraq will lay in ruins, the Gulf oil fields will be ablaze, and everyone will wonder aloud about what went wrong.

    The answer to this will not lie at the hands of the coalition forces, Israel, or for that matter, Iraq and its leadership.

    It will, however, lie at the hands of the United Nations and its complete and utter failure to avoid the curse of the League of Nations.

    Impotence in an age of enlightenment is a dangerous thing. Complacency, even worse.

    In the coming days, the United Nations and those who we have entrusted in the Security Council to safeguard the peace and sanctuary of the global village will have a singular opportunity to create history, and make lasting peace.

    For the first time since the birth of the United Nations, the Security Council will have the opportunity of requiring of Iraq to comply, completely, totally, and without qualification, with all resolutions of the Security Council.

    If this is achieved, the Middle East may well avoid war.

    But, if not, the Security Council must (and will) authorise the coalition forces to take all necessary or required measures to secure compliance with its resolutions.

    In the event of this occurring, Iraq may well seek to strike out against either American interests in the region, or against Israel. But again, the same consequences will result - an attack on Iraq and the removal of the present Iraqi leadership.

    Sadly, however, I do not believe that either the UN or the SC is up to the enormity of the task now before it. That is why I consider that war in the Middle East is inevitable, and that the first sounds of gunfire will be heard by month's end /early October.

    But, alas, this is a sad reflection of the fundamental failing of all that the United Nations has, to date, pretended to be.
 
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