Impact of Regional Conflict, page-2

Hi @brunod,

First and foremost, my thoughts are with your friends in the UAE and everyone caught in the crossfire of this escalation. It is entirely understandable that they are scared, and hearing about people seeking shelter brings the harsh reality of this conflict right to our doorstep. Above all else, we share your hope that the retaliation remains limited and that peace can be restored as quickly as possible. The human cost is always the most tragic element of these geopolitical failures.

As you rightly pointed out, while we process the human toll, the markets will open tomorrow and immediately begin pricing in this new reality. The chaos in trave
l, business, and economic flows that you mentioned is going to trigger a violent capital reallocation.

The Futures Tape is Already Showing Sign

If you want to know exactly how severe the risk is for Monday's open, just look at the weekend futures.

* The Equity Dump: As of Sunday evening, Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures are already down over 1%, signaling a vicious open for global equities as panic sets in.

* The Safe-Haven Surge: Gold futures have violently broken out, pushing past the $5,100 mark as institutional capital desperately seeks safety.

* The Energy Shock: Brent crude has spiked to a seven-month high over $72/barrel.

If we look at recent historical shocks of this magnitude (like the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 or the Israel-Hamas escalation in late 2023), institutional capital follows a very specific "30-Day Playbook." Here is how the smart money is likely to move over the next month, and why Tivan’s portfolio is sitting exactly where that capital is heading.

Phase 1: Days 1 to 5 (The Liquidity Panic)

In the first week of a major regional war, everything drops. Broad market indices sell off aggressively. Margin calls hit, and funds liquidate profitable positions just to raise cash.

* The Tivan Impact: TVN may get caught in the broader market red this week. Do not panic. However is usually forced institutional selling, not a reflection of the asset's underlying value. Give we are not in the ASX300 hopefully any downside risk is muted.

Phase 2: Days 5 to 15 (The Defense & Safe-Haven Rotation)

Once the initial margin calls are cleared, the smart money immediately reallocates. Capital abandons high-risk tech and emerging markets and floods into Safe-Haven Hard Assets and Defense. If we do make the ASX300 there could even be more impetus for active funds to buy in.

* The Australian Fortress: Projects in the Middle East or politically unstable regions will see funding evaporate. Tivan holds 100% of its critical minerals within Australia, making it the ultimate safe-haven destination for capital.

* The Tungsten Restocking Mandate (Molyhil): With heavy ordnance exchanges underway, the burn rate of advanced munitions just increased. You cannot manufacture armor-piercing rounds or interceptor missiles without Tungsten. As Western defense primes get mandates to urgently restock depleted inventories, Tivan’s advanced Molyhil project (with its Scoping Study due next month) will suddenly screen as a premium defense-critical asset.

Phase 3: Days 15 to 30 (The Supply Chain Premium & Asian Jeopardy)

By week three, the market stops trading on emotion and starts pricing in the actual physical damage to global supply chains.

To elaborate on my earlier point regarding Asian manufacturing being in "immediate jeopardy," we have to look at how China operates in these scenarios. China is already actively weaponizing its "Dual-Use Export Control List." Just last month (February 2026), they slapped sweeping rare earth and critical mineral export bans on 40 major Japanese entities in retaliation for political comments regarding Taiwan.

If China and Russia decide to respond asymmetrically to these US/Israeli strikes to protect their Iranian ally, they will simply expand those exact "dual-use" export bans to choke off the US and its allies.

* The Dual Shock: Asian manufacturing hubs like Japan and South Korea are about to get hit from both sides. Their energy supply lines (oil/LNG) from the Gulf are paralyzed by the conflict, and their critical raw materials (Fluorite) may likely be restricted by China.

* Japan's Lifeline (Speewah/Sandover): This perfectly validates why the Japanese Government (JOGMEC) took a 49% equity interest in Sumitomo's vehicle for Speewah. Japan’s semiconductor sector cannot survive without tier-1 fluorspar. Speewah and Sandover are no longer just mining projects; they are critical sovereign lifeboats for the global tech supply chain.

Brunod, thank you for sharing your perspective and reminding us of the human element behind these headlines. We are all hoping for the safety of your friends and a rapid de-escalation.

From an investment standpoint, however, the thesis for sovereign-backed, fully funded critical minerals in Tier-1 jurisdictions has never been more absolute.

GLTA