Impact of Regional Conflict

As we know the Middle East and much of the world is in conflict.

I don’t begin to understand the conflict and how in 2026 there is no much unnecessary war and loss of life. Now the UAE and Dubai specifically has been hit which appears extraordinary. I have friends there and they are all in shelters and very scared. Let’s all hope any retaliation is limited. But travel routes, business, people and economic flows are in chaos.

Markets this coming week will be hit by this massive, structural macroeconomic shock.When a regional conflict of this magnitude erupts—especially one directly involving the US, Israel, and Iran, with explicit goals of regime change—the entire global market pivots from "growth" to "survival."

For our company, this horrific geopolitical reality completely validates the foundational thesis we have been building: Security of supply is now the only metric that matters.

The conflict creates an ever increasing need for Tungsten. You cannot replace missiles, build new aerospace frames, or manufacture armor-piercing munitions without Tungsten. It’s known that Western defense inventories were already critically low prior to this weekend. Now, they are in emergency territory.

So the impact for Tivan - Molyhil is no longer just a mining project; it is an urgent national security asset for its allies. With oil prices spiking and commercial shipping lanes in the Middle East under direct threat from Iranian retaliation, global supply chains are choking. Also because China and Russia have strongly condemned the US/Israeli strikes, the geopolitical divide is completely locked in. It is highly probable that China will respond to this Western aggression by completely severing "dual-use" critical mineral exports (like Fluorite and Tungsten) to the US and its allies.

The Impact is that Japan and Sumitomo’s move to lock up Speewah and Sandover will look like the trade of the century.

As mentioned, the broad market will likely bleed red this week as fear takes over, but structurally, Tivan has never been more vital to the Western supply chain.

Love to get Paulli’s insightful observations on the above as well.

Above all else the safety of people and peace in the world is what we all want to see and for communities around the world to live in peace and prosperity. It seems we are far away from realising these simple life goals.