AGM 0.00% $2.12 australian governance & ethical index fund

i wouldnt be accepting zfxs offer just yet

  1. 134 Posts.
    Zinifex have declared their offer as final, thus under the truth in takeovers provision they cannot raise this offer.

    There is the possibility (although slim) that another entrant will join the fray, because they know that they wont be involved in a bidding war with Zinifex because Zinifex have declared their offer final and cannot raise their offer price. There is no doubt that some of the other nickel majors have been watching the AGM takeover story unfold, and this move is a statement to the other nickel majors that it is do or die for them if they are interested in AGM's assets, so it's a final measure to flush out any interested parties. The current situation is of much benefit to the other Nickel companies, as they know that they will not have any competition if they submit a higher offer than $1.10 (unless a further entrant makes a bid after them).

    I won't be in any hurry to sell my stake until closer to the expiry date of the offer, just in case someone else makes a bid. Just gonna sit back and relax, knowing that i have got at a minimum price of $1.10, with a small chance for a bit more.

    Also note that Zinifex have said "The offer is final as to price" - it is not final as to the expiry date. Therefore they can keep extending the expiry date. It's likely an extension will occur until they get closer to 90% and the compulsory takeover threshold.

    At the end of the day, if Jinchuan decide not to sell their stake, there is nothing stopping ordinary AGM holders from keeping their shareholding because Zinifex will not get to 90% without Jinchuan accepting.

    I just had a look at the course of sales and not many large trades have gone through - just a lot of small stakes. The hedge funds and other large holders are sitting tight until closer to the expiry date to see if any other bidders are flushed out.

    The trades going through at $1.105 are just the shorts covering their positions and some of the crazy brave i reckon.

    You never know, but THR just may have one more present waiting for us...


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