KAR 5.49% $1.44 karoon energy ltd

How profitable will Karoon be now and by 2H2022 when production reaches 30,000 bbls/day?

  1. 43 Posts.
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    Ahead of the coming half yearly on 23 September, the market will be looking at its first full set of KAR results with a full period of Bauna production. What we know about profitability so far from the 1H21 quarterly’s is:-

    1. Q1 production = 1.14m bbls (12,641 av/day) @ $55.38 /bbl for US$74.3m lifted revenue
    2. Q2 production = 1.19m bbls (13,068 av/day) @ $65.31/ bbl for US$96.5m lifted revenue.
    3. Guidance on unit operating costs have been narrowed to US$24-26/bbl so at the margin with current oil prices at/around US$70/bbl (Karoon gets a premium to Brent) we can expect pre royalty margins of $45/bbl.
    4. New management is targeting unit operating costs to be at or below US$20/bbl after the upcoming mid-2022 workovers and expanded production to 30,000 bbls/day by Q4 2022. So we can expect pre royalty margins of $50/bbl at current $70bbl Brent.

    If these above assumptions are correct, by end 2022 Karoon should be producing US$135m of operating cash flow per quarter or US$540m per annum = A$750m pa, less A$10-12m other operating costs, less royalties and less tax (the company should have substantial tax losses in Brazil).

    The current market cap of A$650m values the company at 0.86x one year forward operating cash flow is ridiculously cheap. What multiple should we put on this pre-royalty, pre tax operating cash flow?

    3x = $4.10/sh,
    4x = $5.45/sh,
    5x = $6.80/sh
 
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