how long to wait?

  1. NT
    1,708 Posts.
    Domum has sold down/out to look elsewhere.

    So we can blame his selling for reducing buying pressure.
    Tee - hee. Just joking! --- Really!

    However buying strength is slackening off.
    On the other hand sellers are appearing gradually and generally small in numbers.

    Well AVL is progressing without a hitch so far.
    Some posts indicated being miss led, that the company has not worked transport/refining costs well and that profits are not as reasonably anticipated.

    Apart from "self delusion" these criticisms do not appear soundly based on facts.

    Most emerging miners one comes across have may teething toubles, disappointments, cost over-runs, etc.
    AVL has been very reliable in moving to production.

    As previously posted - a number of times - AVL is NOT a rocket speck and traders - speculators will find better short term trades.

    AVL does not offer the exciting volitility of a speculative share.
    Consequently should be regarded as a two - three year holding.
    As such AVL does not hold the interest of many in the market and will require considerable change in market sentiment to overcome share price inertia.

    Soverign Risk.
    Mentality of individuals is the key here.
    The soverign - tribal conflict risk is in the mind of the beholder.
    Tis much less real "as regarded by people all over the world" (a previous post) would imagine without proper up-to date information.


    So a 60 percent premium for such risks is very overdone.
    One day - perhaps early 1994 - a "public sage" will make an announcement that the risk is benine and AVL will be re-rated accordingly.

    While there is a suggestion AVL will surge to 15 to 18? cents within days my preference is ---

    16 t0 18 cents in 6 to 8 weeks time influenced by a strong quarterly report.

    25 cents January to February 2004 with stage 2 in place.

    50 cents or more by March 2005.

    Predictions are predictions and only that.

    However there should be few informed HC contibuters who will have a great difference to these predictions.

    Perhaps those well informed about the tribal unrest, emerging government, UN support and guidance (Congo) and knowledge of AVL as a company and management would suggest these figures are perhaps conservative.

    Cheers

    NT
 
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