CEY 0.00% $6.16 centennial coal company limited

hold or sell, page-6

  1. 25,374 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2
    stocko re: hold or sell stocko
    this is a pdf grab
    (sorry about the format) of the Aegis consensus rept for 200503

    20 May 2003
    Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY) $2.32
    Sector: Materials Industry Group: Materials Industry: Metals & Mining Sub Industry: Diversified Metals
    & Mining
    Important ASX Announcements
    Peer Comparison
    We do not offer any recommendation on this stock.
    Company Overview
    Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY) is an Australian thermal and coking
    coal producer, with annual coal production of 13 million tonnes. CEY has 13
    operating mines in the Western, Central Coast, Southern NSW Coalfields and
    in Central Queensland. With 80% of coal produced sold to domestic power
    stations, the remainder is exported principally to Asia.
    Differentiating Factor
    CEY is the largest of the emerging 'pure' coal producers listed on the ASX with
    coal sourced totally from Australia. It provides a utility type investment vehicle
    in that the majority of its revenues are linked to A$ long- tem contracts with
    domestic electricity generators. It has dominance of supply in the key western
    and Central Coast districts of NSW.
    Earnings Summary
    1NPAT is adjusted by removing non-recurring items and goodwill. All the above statistics are derived
    from normalised earnings.
    Yr to Jun NPAT
    Rep $M
    NPAT1
    Adj $M
    EPSc
    EPS chg%
    PERx
    PER rel
    All Ords
    x
    PER rel
    Sectorx
    DPS
    c
    Yield
    %
    Franking
    %
    ROE
    %
    2000A 3 3 0.0 n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a
    2001A 10 10 22.7 n/a 10.2 0.6 1.2 7.0 3.0 0.0 19.3
    2002A 29 29 33.0 45.2 7.0 0.4 0.4 16.0 6.9 0.0 27.5
    Date Title
    02-May-03 Third Quarter Activities Report
    30-Apr-03 Third Quarter Activities Report
    03-Mar-03 Half Yearly Report
    03-Mar-03 Half Yearly Report
    27-Feb-03 Half Yearly Report
    04-Feb-03 Second Quarter Activities Report
    04-Feb-03 Second Quarter Activities Report
    31-Jan-03 Second Quarter Activities Report
    28-Oct-02 First Quarter Activities Report
    28-Oct-02 First Quarter Activities Report
    P/E(x) Dividend
    Yield (%) Price
    Company Code 02A 03F 02A 03F $
    BHP Billiton Limited BHP 13.3 15.7 3.0 3.0 8.41
    Rio Tinto RIO 14.9 14.1 3.6 3.4 30.10
    Alumina Ltd AWC 20.7 18.5 3.1 5.1 4.15
    WMC Resources WMR (85.4) 20.5 0.0 1.2 3.75
    Centennial Coal CEY 7.1 8.1 6.9 4.3 2.33
    Key Information
    Directors
    Dr Kenneth J Moss, John S Roth, Malcolm
    B Clyde, Robert G Cameron, Robert H
    Duffin, Dr P. Moy
    Market Cap ($M): 372
    Shares (M): 157
    % of Market: 0.05
    12 Month H/L: $1.58 - $2.45
    Price as at: 20-May-03 10:34
    Last Update: 20-May-03
    Price Performance & Target

    1 Year
    (%)
    2 Years
    (%)
    3 Years
    (%)
    CEY 18 110 409
    Sector (13) 1 26
    Market (13) (11) (5)
    Consensus Recommendations
    0
    1 1 1
    2
    Sell Under
    Perf. Hold Buy Strong
    Buy
    FY03 FY04
    Consensus EPS (c) 26.4 28.7
    EPS Growth (%) 9.0
    P/E Ratio (x) 8.8 8.1
    P/E Rel. All Ords (x) 0.54 0.57
    P/E Rel. Sector (x) 0.58 0.61
    Number of Brokers in Earnings Survey: 5
    Independent Equities Research
    Centennial Coal Company Limited
    Year end Jun. All figures in A$M
    Profit & loss summary 2000A 2001A 2002A
    Operating revenue 5 103 142
    Invest & other income 0 0 0
    EBITDA 3 24 44
    Depreciation/Amort 0 (9) (12)
    EBIT 3 15 32
    Net Interest 0 (5) (2)
    Pre-tax profit 3 10 29
    Tax expense 0 0 0
    Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0 0 0
    NPAT 3 10 29
    Non recurring items 0 0 0
    Reported profit 3 10 29
    NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0 0 0
    Adjusted profit 3 10 29
    Cashflow summary 2000A 2001A 2002A
    EBITDA 3 24 44
    Working capital changes 0 (14) (8)
    Interest and tax 0 (4) (2)
    Other operating items 0 12 9
    Operating cashflow 3 18 42
    Required capex 0 (6) (11)
    Maintainable cashflow 3 12 32
    Dividends 0 (2) (7)
    Acq/Disp 0 (56) 0
    Other investing items 0 (7) 1
    Free cashflow 3 (52) 25
    Equity 0 43 2
    Debt inc/(red'n) 0 14 (28)
    Balance sheet 2000A 2001A 2002A
    Cash & deposits 0 8 8
    Inventories 0 8 12
    Trade debtors 0 10 16
    Other curr assets 0 12 13
    Total current assets 0 39 48
    Prop., plant & equip. 0 71 70
    Non-curr intangibles 0 0 0
    Non-curr investments 0 1 1
    Other non-curr assets 0 51 55
    Total assets 0 162 174
    Trade creditors 0 9 12
    Curr borrowings 0 5 1
    Other curr liabilities 0 12 24
    Total current liab. 0 26 37
    Borrowings 0 36 12
    Other non-curr liabilities 0 4 9
    Total liabilities 0 66 58
    Minorities/Convertibles 0 0 0
    Shareholders equity 0 95 116
    Calendar of Events
    Ratio analysis 2000A 2001A 2002A
    Sales growth (%) 0.0 1849.1 37.5
    EBITDA growth (%) n/a 804.5 86.6
    EPS growth (%) n/a n/a 45.2
    EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 49.1 22.8 30.9
    EBIT/Sales margin (%) 49.1 14.3 22.3
    Tax rate (%) 0.0 3.0 0.7
    Net debt/equity (%) 0.0 37.9 8.2
    Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 0.0 27.5 7.6
    Net interest cover (x) n/a 3.1 12.7
    Payout ratio (%) 0.0 30.8 48.6
    Capex to deprec'n (%) 0.0 62.8 88.3
    NTA per share ($) 0.00 1.11 1.26
    ROA (%) 0.0 12.6 19.0
    ROE (%) n/a 19.3 27.5
    Multiple analysis 2000A 2001A 2002A
    Market cap ($M) 372
    Net debt ($M) 278
    Peripheral assets ($M) (182)
    Enterprise value ($M) 469
    EV/EBIT (x) 180.2 31.8 14.8
    EV/EBITDA (x) 180.2 19.9 10.7
    EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 11.6 10.8 10.2
    EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 15.6 1.8 1.0
    P/E (x) 0.0 10.2 7.0
    P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.0 0.4 0.3
    P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.0 0.4 0.4
    P/E sector (x) 12.6 8.7 16.7
    P/E rel sector (x) 0.0 1.2 0.4
    Date Event
    03-Apr-03 Dividend Date Payable for Half Yearly Result
    (5.0c 0% franked)
    20-Mar-03 Dividend Record Date for Half Yearly Result
    (5.0c 0% franked)
    14-Mar-03 Dividend Ex-Dividend Date for Half Yearly
    Result
    (5.0c 0% franked)
    08-Oct-02 Dividend Date Payable for Final Year Result
    (8.00c 0.00% franked)
    08-Aug-02 Dividend Record Date for Final Year Result
    (8.00c 0.00% franked)

    This is lastnights chart it is still in long mode
    though closed on red candle with long lower shadow?
    todays 230 on small vols would seem to be confirming a prevailing turn down and a close watch on the puff?

    paste the url if interested
    http://www.geocities.com/mad_macs_au/CEY270503a.png
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.