XJO 2.29% 5,815.9 s&p/asx 200

history shows 2nd day of month points to gains

  1. 1,116 Posts.

    Tregg's Breakpoint analysis link on the XJO thread showed an amazing stat that the first day of the month in the US typically realises huge gains on the S&P500 - since Jan 1 2010, the S&P500 is up over 15%. If you take the first day of each month out the S&P400 returned just 1.4% over the last 13 months.

    Given that the ASX200 takes it lead from the US,I looked at a comparable analysis for the ASX200 for the second day of the month as well as for the first day.

    Of the 13 months since Jan 1 2010, day 2 has been up 10 times and down 3 - this is 0.6% per day which correlates to a 7.0% annual gain. (total is 7.6% for the 13 days)

    Of the 13 months since Jan 1 2010, day 1 has been up 7 times and down 6 - this is 0.2% per day which correlates to a 2.3% annual gain.

    From Jan 01 2010 to Jan 5 2011, the ASX200 was down 3.2%. If you take out Day 2 of every month the market would be down 9.9%. If you took out Day 1 of every month the market would be down 4.9%.

    So a 0.6% gain on the cards for tomorrow! Not as big as the 1.1% day 1 average in the USA but it never is. Good luck!
 
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