CTP 4.17% 11.5¢ central petroleum limited

hindsight, page-6

  1. 3,134 Posts.
    If one truly have hindsight, then he can convert that hindsight into experience and benefit from it. Unfortunately, most of us don't even have a clue the reasons behind all the buying.

    You idea of hindsight is knowing the future before it happens. For many of us, such "skills" do not exist and therefore not a valid investment technique. But other techniques do exist, such as: valuation, charting, technical analysis, psychology, etc.

    For example: valuation.

    the worst case: 3mmbls,p90 = 3 x $60 nett per barrel x 0.90 probability = $162m / 1500ms = 0.108c per share.

    probable case: forgot - see presentation.

    the best case: 68mbbls, P90 ......

    If you are conservative, you pick the worst case. An optimist will pick the best case.

    From memory, JH thinks is 5mmbls, same calculation gives us 18cps.
 
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