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  1. 1,200 Posts.

    I would agree with your last reports that 5% POS is far to pessimistic escpecially considering the Chinguetti wildcat success and in forms the success at Courbine..

    Food for thought...

    the probability of there being hydrocarbons present at all: This probability is termed the "Probability of Success (POS), and is estimated by multiplying together the probability of there being
    1) a source rock where hydrocarbons were generated
    2) a structure in which the hydrocarbons might be trapped
    3) a seal on top of the structure to stop the hydrocarbons migrating further
    4) a migration path for the hydrocarbons from source rock to trap
    5) the correct sequence of events in time (ex trap before migration of oil)

    POS is the multiple of all 5-probabilities above since they must all occur simultaneously if hydrocarbons are to be present at all... It also dramatically explains the meaning of WPL's conservative 65MB estimate of reserves, since until you drill that hole and prove the reserves in that area you must otherwise apply a risk factor which dramatically reduces the reserves estimate..

    For example the stated conservative POS of 5% implies a probability of failure of 95%! at the moment the running tally of POS is 50% failure (if courbine is viewed as that..) we have a way to go before getting to 95% failure and only another 52+x leads to go.

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