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FAR 12.0¢

Have we all missed something?

  1. Oddoneout

    2,124 Posts.
    364
    Hi All

    Finally got to sit down tonight and read the quarterly. As usual, if you read carefully there are a couple of gems. I missed the gunfight at the FAR corral on Friday - thank Christ - so my comments might already have been covered.

    Conventional wisdom here holds that FAR will concentrate (almost?) solely on SNE this year, yet in the quarterly Cath says: "Reaching commerciality on each of the Senegal discoveries is FAR's priority in 2015." Each? Yet we are drilling two appraisal wells at SNE and one exploration well "on the shelf", which we assume is at Buried Hills. So how do we reach commerciality at FAN? My HC education suggests that can't happen without at least one appraisal well. Ya and Co, please help me here. They spent a long, long time at FAN and are obviously spending a long time evaluating the results. Might commerciality be inferred from what they already have?

    Against this, Cath says SNE is the priority for the current analysis due out Q1. What does that mean? Does it infer the FAN results will require further work? That is, will be inconclusive at the time of the Q1 release?

    Cath throws out a big, big hint about the likelihood of Instos joining the register when she remarks how the capital raising "enjoyed a high level of investor interest". If you recall, that $46m got put away in a day. My guess? Instos are simply waiting for the 2C to confirm Whisky's twin elephants before they start to take positions in the stock. I doubt they will pile in pre-"commerciality", but given Cath has already foreshadowed a straight-forward pathway for SNE they will, I feel, be confident enough to make an early play of sorts.

    The whole tenor of the report points towards FAR setting itself up for the long (production) haul. Of course a TO remains possible - it always is - but I get the distinct impression the Board and management see the greatest shareholder reward coming from staying the distance, at the very least until the Senegal basin is thoroughly explored and appraised. Pointers?

    Did everyone note the strategic review in December, which presaged The Chef's hiring? And his brief? In essence, work out what we should sell to ensure we can stay in the game and to attract capital from the market.

    Cath says we are cashed up to "comfortably meet (our) work program commitments for the foreseeable future". That buys The Chef time to weave his magic.

    Further evidence? A multi-well exploration program in "un drilled prospects" to follow the 2015 appraisal/exploration drills "aimed at unlocking the prospectivity of the shelf offshore Senegal where there is large upside potential". That's going to require significant cash, so where might that come from?

    Is there in the release a sniff of a Bunsen burner that might help? Turning to Kenya, the report notes how the onshore discovery in L6 "provides the potential for gas to be used as feedstock for power generation in the near term". How near is near? Might we have cash flow by year end? Ya et al?

    Seismic work continues offshore WA but I note we have lifted the bat on our onshore interests. Good prioritisation. Can't kiss all the girls.

    And finally, last line of the release - Whisky, this will make you happy - confirmation that our three priorities are now Senegal, Senegal and Senegal.

    For a boring quarterly, this one was pretty - er - unboring.

    Tomorrow will be interesting. Gotta be green after a 7% rise in OP doesn't it?

    (Great first set in the tennis!)

    OOO

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