The yield curve which is flattening which is a product of monetary and economic policy going forward. It doesn't mean that US will go to recession but a higher chance if they continue the current path. If this leading indicator signals the actual event then the "gold=inflation hedge" will have to be re-written to "gold= stagflation/hyper inflation hedge".
I can then make the case that by such time QE will morph to Helicopter money because if low IR cannot trigger a change to spending habits to stoke growth then they need to provide "free" cash injection to get it going.