'Do you understand what the total derivatives held by American banks mean for the U.S. Economy?'
LOL. Not all derivatives are bad. Ever heard of hedging? Sure, a lot of derivatives - which are, in simple terms, leveraged products - are used for speculation. But, the majority of commercial contracts are used for hedging. This is why gold, still has a record 'short position'. You have majors trying to lock in prices, attempting to stablise cash flow. The record short position won't fall. Near the end, you will see more speculative positions added, when everyone becomes so bearish, gold starts making new lows.
If you check out the latest COGs report, you'll note, most large speculators are NET LONG. They go with the trend. Small speculators are also NET LONG. Commercials are NET SHORT, which won't change. Typically, near peaks/ bottoms, you get most speculators long or short. Then, all of a sudden, they take profits because the direction/trend changes. It's really as simple as that.
This isn't a bull market, far from it. Fundamental analysis, paralysis, will destroy you. Keep listening to Rickard's et al, gold's going to 10k. I have had a chat with a few commercial futures traders this week, most of them are unsure about whether this is the real thing or not. I am sold, it isn't. But, if we get a breakthrough of 1400, I'm happy to admit that I missed the boat. Will it get there? Based on all my research, I highly doubt it.
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