NCM 0.43% $32.73 newcrest mining limited

+ + gold: the situation in iraq /saudi + +

  1. 22,691 Posts.
    This has worsened now in Iraq with many Sunni having withdrawn from the coming election.

    The Shiites, supported by IRAN are very keen to have these election, but even if these are held, some major problems loom ahead.

    The Shites want to form an Islamist State akin to that in IRAN, but of course others don't want to.

    Then, we have the Northern powerful tribes, the Kurds. These 3 parties are quite prepared to fight if their wishes are not complied with.
    ______________________________

    The Shiites are of course using the US to complete their own plans, and the Sunni are well aware of that.

    It is quite possible that bloodshed along religious and territorial lines, will occur with Iran taking part as well by supplying fighters and arms.

    Meanwhile, I can't see Bin Ladin having a holiday while this is going on. But it is important first to find out out if the Iraqi election will take place; if not, that will mean serious trouble for the US as *part* of their troops can't be withdrawn.

    So the first objective is to make it difficult for an election to take place by disturbances and bloodshed.

    At some stage more fighters will become available to look at the Saudi issue.

    So, the overriding interest in oil and pricing will decide the course of the US economy.

    And for that reason, the US troops will be tied down. It will be interesting to wait for the reaction of the Shiites as to the stay of American troops if an election took place and they won, bearing in mind that the state of Iranian troops is not good.

    They may well use the US troops initially while preparing their own army and then ask the US to leave.

    Altogether, a convoluted and powerful explosive cocktail to be served in the next six months.

    Add to that the increasing chance that oil refineries and/or oil platforms (the latter at a good distance from the coast and with little protection (An instrument guided small boat laden with explosives will do the trick), can be hit simultaneously and the supply of oil is severely interrupted and the price moves up.
    _________________________________

    SO, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO THE GOLD STOCK INVESTOR?

    It is clear that Bin Laden can execute many avenues of severe economic damage and it has been noted that he and Al Qaeda is far more often mentioned now than in the past.

    Indeed, the US economy and Al Qaeda are sometimes mentioned in the same sentence.

    The Gold Investor knows that the USD will depend not only on their own and a good world economy but also on non-terrorism.

    THESE ARE LINKED.

    Gerry
    Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.


 
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