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Gold Price Analysis

  1. Interesting and informative to the technically inept like myself...

    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/62

    Analysis
    Wed 6/19/02

    Mov Exponential Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

    Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The market trend has changed direction. Now the trend is UP!

    Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

    Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

    Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

    Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average, price goes below the slow moving average.

    Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

    Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: price goes below the fast moving average.

    Bollinger Bands Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

    Additional Analysis: The market is in overbought territory.

    Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

    Momentum Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-1.40) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

    Rate of change Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-0.44) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

    Comm Channel Index Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-45.44) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

    Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-45.44) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero.

    ADX Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

    DMI Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: DMI signals a bullish trade when the DMI+ crosses above the DMI-, as it has here.

    Additional Analysis: DMI has signaled a bullish trade. However, the ADX has weakened making this trade less attractive. Look for outside confirmation before taking a bullish position here, or wait for an upturn in ADX.

    RSI Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 52.80). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

    Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 52.80). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

    MACD Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

    Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

    Volume Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

    Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

    Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The market looks strong both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (27.74). A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought.

    Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

    Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. SlowK is starting to show the market is oversold. A bottom may not be far off. The short term trend is UP. SlowK was up this bar for the second bar in a row. We may have seen the bottom of the down move for a while.

    Swing Index Indicator:

    Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

    Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

    Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

    Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation.


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