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Gold - My Thoughts.

  1. roberter

    473 Posts.

    Must admit the POG has been on my mind last couple of months. (Judging by posts not alone there.)

    Gold at the moment is tracking the weakness of the US dollar. Has moved up from historical lows, only to the extent of 20% or so.(Not really a bull run.)
    The key to gold really getting a move on is the perception that all other asset classes (including all major world currencies) will not hold value.
    At the moment we have a weakening USD which I think will continue to depreciate BUT other currencies are appreciating at a greater than parity rate.
    This points to a flow of funds out of USD into assets other than gold.
    If the majority of flow was into gold , gold would be much higher than 320.
    For me to believe that gold is going to 600 / 800 you are asking me to believe ALL asset values are going to collapse.
    With gold's recent history of being percieved as no longer a relevant store of value this is want it would take for gold to really take off. (It really has not to this point even given an enviroment that 20 years ago would have had gold north of 600.)
    In my guts I think the smart money has already been made on the Australian goldies and that was more of a function the the depreciation of the AUD against the USD and the resultant appreciation of the POG in AUD.
    The smart money has been made and is looking to move into the next undervalued sector.
    No aggresive replies just my thoughts.
    BTW hold BSG just in case I'm wrong.

    Rob.

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