gold market musing.

  1. 10,543 Posts.
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    Here is my guess.

    This coming week the US will push the envelope for UN Security Council approval of a resolution worded so that not even the French can disagree but with pressure to have it passed this week.

    Key Council members will delay the vote aiming to buy time.

    Then on or around the 4th March (moonless night) the US will launch the first wave of two nights of missile attacks on Baghdad quickly followed by massed air and land attacks on several fronts.

    (At that stage Grant62, I will be happy to settle for a reasonable vintage 707?, LOL!)

    Gold which will have risen a little in anticaption will briefly (very breifly) spike before settling back to complete a complete retrace on its current price run.

    It willbe from this final lowthat it will then commence its next major run up as events in Iraq either quickly or slowly unfold - either way being driven by the realities of the US economy plus the added cost of the Iraq excursion plus any new warmongering that may then quickly emerge in relation to Phyong Yang or Pakistan.

    Just cross your fingers and hope that the Iraq leg at least is quick and clinic and doesn't haemorrhage into a much larger region conflict.

    Stcok markets will initially fall on the news this time but I must say that I'm completely decided on what is likely to happen then. I suspect it will depend on the nature of the conflict. A quick win and at least for a short while they might go up.

    Something messier....

    Any thoughts?
 
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