gold just hit $386, page-3

  1. 71 Posts.
    check out the this piece on - it might help explain,

    Gold surges past US$380 an ounce
    Michael Quinn
    05 February 2003
    AUSTRALIAN gold stocks were on the march this morning with the usual suspects Lihir Gold, Emperor Gold and Croesus Mining among the leaders after bullion prices climbed as high as US$384 an ounce overnight.

    Highly leveraged Emperor was the standout, rising 7 cents, or more than 10%, to 70 cents in midday trade. However, the stock was still below the 75 cents it traded at last month before the market reacted savagely to a disappointing fourth-quarter result.

    Lihir was up 3.3% to $1.57 a share and Croesus was up 3.4% to 91 cents.

    Meantime, Oxiana Resources continued its great run of recent months, rising 5% to 63 cents.

    Gold has surged by around 19% in the last couple of months - gaining US$60/oz in 60 days - with the Australian Gold Index rising a similar amount in percentage terms.

    Although the rise in bullion prices has been broadly matched by equity prices, many investors still believe a dichotomy between the two exists. They argue that stock prices would normally run significantly ahead of the gold price in a bull market.

    However, one analyst said that if you consider there is a US$20/oz war premium currently in the price then equities have clearly outperformed bullion.

    He also suggested gold stocks had already "got a little ahead of themselves" earlier in 2002 - a further indication that equities are not significantly under-performing.

    In terms of where to from here for the gold price, a snap poll of analysts by this morning saw forecasts of US$385-400/oz as likely short-term peaks for gold, with a war premium of at least US$40-50/oz if gold reaches US$400/oz.

    One said the "real bull run" would start once the war premium is wiped from the gold price and investors start to realise there are fundamental reasons for the strong price.
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