Mot.ley Fool B. Allen 9.2.26 said"...Wayne Gordon from UBS Singapore and Giovanni Staunovo from UBS Switzerland said they expected the gold price to reach US$6,200 per ounce in the March quarter, and remain at about that level in the June and September quarters.
They forecast a pullback in the December quarter, after the US midterm elections in November, to about US$5,900 per ounce.
Gordon and Staunovo explained why the forecast had changed:
They said:"In terms of demand for physical gold, the strategists referenced data from the World Gold Council showing that total demand in 2025, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, exceeded 5,000 metric tonnes for the first time, mainly due to robust investment activity".
They said:
ETF holdings rose by 801 metric tons, bar and coin purchases reached a 12-year high of nearly 1,375 metric tons, and central banks acquired 863 metric tons.
The central bank purchases were slightly below expectations for the year and the record amounts of the previous years, but they're still strong in a historical context.
Jewelry volumes declined, as anticipated, due to elevated prices, but sales were higher than we projected.
As we reported last year, jewellery sales are also going the other way, withsome Aussies cashing in their rings, necklaces, and other items.
Record inflows into gold ETFs
The analysts' expectations of higher investment activity in 2026 are borne out in the latest monthly inflow data forgold ETFs.
The World Gold Council reportsa record net monthly inflow of US$19 billion(A$27.3 billion) into gold ETFs in January.
ASX gold ETFs attracted US$202 million in net inflows last month.
There is now a record US$669 billion in assets under management via gold ETFs, and US$8.6 billion of that is in ASX gold ETFs.
Gordon and Staunovo said:
We now expect continued strong central bank buying, higher ETF inflows, and more bar and coin purchases, driven by lower US real rates, ongoing global economic concerns, and uncertainty surrounding US domestic policy, especially related to the midterm elections and increased fiscal stress.
UBS raises gold price target to US$6,200 per ounce for this quarter
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