gillard gone by september?

  1. 2,088 Posts.
    Bolt got Rudd's assassination right so take notice.

    I'm not yet confident enough to make this a firm prediction. But the odds are rapidly shortening on Julia Gillard being out by late September.

    - This tax won't sell - and can't. It is all pain and no gain, and makes no sense at all,

    - The economy is rapidly weakening, in part because of Labor's terrible weakness. Voters will feel frightened at having such a weak government in charge at this moment, making things even worse.

    - Gillard's media supporters are less vocal, feeling more pity than respect. No one wants a leader they pity.

    - The Greens have become dangerously extreme and arrogant, further undermining Gillard. Brown demanding restrictions on a media that criticises him must be a last straw.

    - The polls have their own logic and bring their own pressure. I'm tipping the next Newspoll will give Gillard little lift, and quite possibly will show her plumb new depths.

    - Union support is fracturing. Consider the Transport Workers' Union. The AWU will soon back Gillard's tax, thanks to the handouts, but few unions will actively fight for her.

    - Growing panic in business sectors over falling sales and rising costs will force more business leaders to speak out, let Labor do its worst.

    - Gillard's record of mismanagement means another scandal could happen at any time. The NBN, for one, is always ripe to blow, but remember the cattle trade disaster? What's next?

    - Gillard faces another debilitating fight if Malaysia finally signs its people-swap deal, and she starts shipping boat people over.

    - State Governments, those Liberal or about to be, cannot afford to let Gillard risk their power supplies and will fight.

    - Labor hopes that Tony Abbott is accident-prone and will stumble grow dimmer by the day, and he grows stronger.

    - Labor MPs cannot keep going out in public as green dupes or apologists for failure without deciding eventually that enough is enough.

    - And, frankly, the public has simply had enough of Gillard and will not listen. There is a hectic tone to the debate that makes a desire for finality almost irresistible.

    I just cannot see a circuit breaker to this.
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