Yes a truelly expansive peice .. enjoyed reading that and all the comparisons are gold !!
A couple of things i see differently...
a) 'Country: We haven’t seen Uganda be a global standout in mining in recent years. With their only arguable world class asset being the Kilembe Copper Mine which is set to redevelop and restart.'
- 'global standout in mining' ,, if we can include oil projects then Uganda just went ahead last sunday
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/4/10/total-s-latest-african-deal-will-position-uganda-among-major-oil-exporters
b) 'China continues to dominate rare earth supply and naturally become the price makers in the market. In the case for whatever reason, if they do feel their dominance is threatened, they have the option of completely cutting down the price (given they are the lowest cost producers in the world) and shutting out the competitors.'
- just my simplistic opinion, but I see rare earths prices remaining high and China letting the price reflect the true market cost for a couple reasons.
China realises that foreign governments will do anything to keep control over rare earths and as a matter of survival as so many critical civilian and military products are totally depend on them to function. So logically, any Chinese drive to crush the price and put foreign competition out of business wont have work
- China's R/E's can no longer do 'dirty and cheap' because that is being legislated out as the EU in peticular imposes tax penalties according to an end products level of environmental damage and traceable via blockchain from start to finish. Environmental desacration is not acceptable any longer to keep things cheap. THe EU might even impose a cut off mark as plian unacceptable and not just permit it and then impose a larger tax rate
So it would seem inevitable that prices will remian elevated
Just ab opinion
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