TZL 8.33% 13.0¢ tz limited

fun and games

  1. 3,815 Posts.
    Ok...let play a guessing game while we are all waiting:

    How many Intevia units do we all think Larson ordered? I will go with 100,000.

    I found this post on another forum:


    "TZ have announced one high volume order from Larson Doors, and are holding onto several others without announcing at clients requests.

    So if we take the confirmed Larson order:

    http://www.larsondoors.com/

    The new product line incorporating Intevia will be officially launched into the U.S. marketplace in late summer 2008.


    The consumer market will ultimately determine the product volumes for this application, but market research at this stage shows strong potential acceptance.


    Larson are the US' largest supplier of storm doors (external doors), supplying around 4million per year.


    I would put a conservative estimate of the Intevia enabled range at around 1% of total sales i.e 40,000 doors per annum


    Each door would consist of 2 fasteners.


    Total inteiva units purchased by Larson = 80,000 per annum


    Each intevia unit would cost Larson around $200.


    60% gross margin (as announced by management)


    35% tax to give net profit.


    40,000 x 2 x $200 x 60% x 65% = $6.24 million net profit


    or 14 cents EPS


    A very conservative guesstimate NASDAQ P/E for a disruptive technology company would be a P/E of 40.


    $0.14 x 40 = Share price of $5.60 based on Larson order alone


    At the recent EGM, it was suggested that TZ have received several other orders which are much larger than the Larson order. These included a defence contractor and aerospace orders.


    We know from previous meeting and announcements that TZ have previously received development POs from BAE, Airbus and Being. I therefore assume that these are the defence and aerospace companies which were alluded to at the recent EGM.



    Question:


    If the Larson deal is worth $5.60 to the shareprice, then what would the shareprice be worth once much larger orders have been received from the 3 aforementioned global companies, and the other 100+ companies vying for Intevia (as announced in the AGM)?


    Answer:

    Use your calculator and your imagination"

 
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