from noland - on bernake's latest pearls of wisdom

  1. dub
    30,557 Posts.
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    Hi,

    The following comes from Doug Noland at his The Prudent Bear site.

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    February 24 - Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke:

    “The current account deficit is a concern. What that is basically – there are two ways of looking at the current account deficit. One is looking at it from the trading perspective, which most people are familiar with the idea that we are actually importing a lot more than we are exporting. So, in that sense we have a current account deficit. But another way to look at it is that we are investing more than we’re saving. If you look at investment in terms of capital investment by firms, you look at residential investment - that is building new houses. You have seen a lot of investment but we have a relatively low savings rate. And so, having a low savings rate, we have to borrow from foreigners to make up the difference between our saving and the investment we want to do. So, what’s called capital inflows – the money flowing in from foreigners to finance our investment is another way of looking at the current account deficit. So these different perspectives give you different ways of thinking about how you would address this problem. The trade perspective says, yes, part of the issue is getting balance in our trade. And that suggests that we should work with the world trade organization and other trade agencies to try to get fairer and free trade with other countries... On the other side, we have the savings and investing perspective. We have relatively low savings, we have a federal deficit which is subtracting from our savings. And that suggests that part of reducing the current account deficit would be to try to stimulate our savings. Reduce the deficit and take other actions that would increase our savings and therefore reduce capital inflows that are coming in – which is the other face of the current account deficit. Depending how you look at it, there are a variety of policies that should be undertaken. I think the current account deficit is going to be with us awhile. It will take a while to unwind. It can’t go on at this level for ever. It is going to eventually have to come down. And I think it will eventually come down. But policies like increasing our savings would probably be a step in the right direction to help that happen.”




    The U.S. economy generates $600 billion-plus Current Account Deficits because we “invest” so much? Such econobabble from a prominent central banker does not inspire confidence. And, more than ever, instilling dollar confidence is an imperative. Tuesday the dollar was hammered on news of the Bank of Korea’s plan to diversify its dollar-denominated reserves. There was also the revelation of an Asian policymakers meeting this week to discuss “global economic imbalances” and how to deal with the faltering dollar. And from today’s Australian: “[Australia’s Treasurer] Peter Costello’s closest advisor fears the US is heading for a devastating financial crash that could ravage Australia’s economic growth. …Treasury Secretary Ken Henry likened the flood of money pouring into the US to support its budget and current account deficits to the stockmarket’s dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. Were it suddenly to stop, there would be shockwaves felt throughout the world’s economies.”



    Languish over the likelihood that the U.S. is on course to precipitate global financial crisis has spilled out into the open. This is surely related ot the heightened appreciation by market participants and global policymakers that the Federal Reserve is not up to the task of reining in U.S. financial and economic excess. Moreover, the much anticipated marketplace-induced adjustment process has failed to materialize. Indeed, exuberant global markets and propagating asset Bubbles ensure a calamitous future “adjustment.” Global policymakers and central bankers should be apprehensive.



    The weak dollar has certainly failed to rectify or even slow imbalances – global, domestic or otherwise - and there is little prospect that further devaluation will be any more successful. In the past, a weak currency would induce higher market rates – rates necessary to tighten financial conditions, temper over-consumption and undermine speculative dynamics. Yet the old rules no longer apply to contemporary finance, a momentous blow to the capacity for orderly market-based corrections and adjustments. The need for strong-minded central bankers to guard against inexorable market distortions has never been as great, while, ironically, never has a central bank (the Greenspan Fed) placed greater faith in the efficiency of market processes. And Dr. Bernanke’s comments above suggest that policy efforts to constrain American consumption aren’t on the table – “consumption” being a four-letter word not even open to discussion. Accordingly, the prospect of the Fed purposely precipitating a meaningful economic slowdown to assist the U.S. Current Account Deficit “unwind” is nonexistent. Commencing the arduous process of reestablishing Monetary Order is, then, at a logjam.

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    Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin is worth weekly reading for mine. URL is http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

    bye.dub



 
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