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# Forecasting?

1. 66 Posts.
6
So I'm not great at this stuff, but I decided to do a thing.

So based on the following numbers (all prices in AUD)
Note: There is approximately an 8% discrepancy between wmt and dmt.

Hedged price of \$230.30 for 50,000dmt per month.

Last 6-7 months figures of
Sold: 501,000 wmt of IO

Gross profit of \$61,855,948

Average Iron Ore price over the past 6-7 months is \$248.07. (I based this on the IO price on the 1st of each month [Jan-July], then averaged it).
Price was in USD (So multiplied by 1.37 to be AUD [current exchange rate])
 1 2 USD AUD Jan \$158.50 \$217.15 Feb \$156.50 \$214.41 March \$173.00 \$237.01 April \$167.00 \$228.79 May \$187.00 \$256.19 June \$207.50 \$284.28 July \$218.00 \$298.66 Average \$181.07 \$248.07

So if we look at the past 6 months (we'll ignore Dec production, because it was so little and didn't start until Dec 20th).

We have \$61,855,948 / 501,000wmt = Profit of \$123.46 per ton.
With an average IO price of \$248.08 over the period, we can calculate a rough 'overall cost' of \$124.60 per ton.(\$248.07-\$123.46)

We can now use this to forecast some numbers based on the hedging arrangement. These calculations will assume FEX only sells 50,000 tons at the hedged price and nothing else.

Hedge price X tons hedged = revenue per month.
\$230.30 x 50,000 = \$11,515,000.00 per month
\$138,180,000.00 revenue per year

We can use now factor in approximate costs based on the last 6 month average.
~\$124.60 cost per ton X 50,000 = \$6,230,144.55

\$11,515,000 - \$6,230,144.55 = ~\$5,284,855.45 gross profit per month.
• This can be compared with an ~\$10,309,324.67 profit per month over the past 6 month period.
Profit Per Year (for FY22) = ~\$63,418,265.36 per year (gross) (likely WORST case)

***********************

Please point out if you think I've made any grave errors. Obviously there are a number of variables not calculated in here, and a few things I took the 'lazy way' of figuring out.
This also indicates that FEX's "cost base" for IO is ~\$85-90 USD a ton.

However I figure the numbers are rough enough to make some educated decisions against. I hope this is helpful (assuming I didn't totally screw it up).

FEX really did an amazing job at hedging their price when they did.

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