Fed interest rate

  1. 444 Posts.
    Hi
    The next 48 hours are almost crucial to financial markets because FED's rate decision due on Tuesday and certification on financial statements due on Wednesday.
    I'll take a risk to present my prediction about rate change 2 hours before it's release so when you wake up in the morning you would know whether I was right or wrong.
    My point of view is that Dr Greenspan leaves the rate unchanged because the economy is growing at 1.1 %, which is slower than expected, by still growing, and retails sales are up by 1.2%
    The effects of interest rate change would be known not before November so it is unlikely that Dr.Greenspan would back off from his up bitting predictions made 2 moths ago.
    If I'm wrong and interest rate is lowered than the market's reaction would be bullish but short-lived and vase-versa, if rate is unchanged the market would be punished but only for the next 3 days.

    It also makes me wander why two days before the due day only 154 out of about 990 executives certified financial statements. Is there any more bad news in store? Well, Ed thinks there is.

    My advice: stay away from the market before more clear view emerges.


    Ed
 
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