FBR valuation

Okay lets compare FBR to the $billion technology companies in Australia. There is at least one company which I won't name but you can probably guess it. One prominent company spends billions every year on RnD and has a fancy new headquarters. Surely this company would be more profitable then FBR right? I mean it's market cap is in the billions so it must be pretty good right?

Well not really, it looses $100s of millions each year. The fact is FBR is more profitable then this company. This is despite FBR raising much less money and building not one but multiple products 1000s of times more sophisticated then the other company.
FBR's loss is significantly less (one tenth to one 40th) of this multi $billion giant, it's peak annual RnD expenditure is 100th and currently 400 times lower.

Once FBR becomes profitable, which according to my estimations only requires:

1. 10 mantis sales OR
2. 1 mantis and one Hadrian sale OR
3. a significant deal with Samsung OR
4. the overseas RnD rebate contract in the report getting 6 times bigger OR
5. US housing rebounding and CRH or other big contracts restarting or new ones beginning such as the with the person who paid to have Mark fly over to the Middle East OR
6. other research contracts OR
7. other licencing OR
8. other machine sales such as FireHawk or the mentioned timber, shipping, solar or roof tiling use cases OR
9. 30 times current WASS binding contracted backlog. The report hints at a much larger number of housing being built later with this JV in addition there is housing grants possible.

It is more likely then not that most of these will occur eventually.

Once profitable it should be easy to argue that the business case for FBR is better then the forementioned multi billion$ technology company which at it's peak had a market capitalisation of $111.3 billion.
If FBR reaches relative peak market euphoria to this higher loss company this should lead to an increase of 4452 times the current share price. So $17.80 (which happens to match near previous estimates of several posters a few years ago of around $30 less the additional dilution).

Then it's upwards from here as we have a monopoly whilst FAANGs etc are competing in a buyers market even if they manage to finally get their robots working, useful, profitable, reliable, safe and accepted by the market. FBR has already done all but one of these.
You can also see a pre prototype binding contract (Mantis contract), a pre JV test build binding contract (wall offtake agreement). High margin and unicorn were mentioned in the reports. Just as previous reports mentioned operating in a chicken and egg/catch22, slow to change industry and that contracts will eventually come through for the first build in WA and all this eventuated.