LTR 3.45% 42.0¢ liontown resources limited

Hi @vmpI'd never expect the ordinary market analysts to make the...

  1. 5,339 Posts.
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    Hi @vmp
    I'd never expect the ordinary market analysts to make the right valuation for a company like LTR without knowing its projects in depth and living with the stock for some time like us long term holders.

    The market generally makes overvalued or undervalued valuations depends on the sentiment.

    We have a long way to go with LTR mate. It's obvious that a lots of news will flow one by one. I am patiently waiting for them.

    I want to remind some old discussions fro the newcomers, starting from the least important project;

    Buldania Lithium Project.
    I don't think any of the market analysts are looking into it and knows the potential. To me, it's the best exploration project with highest potential in Australia after KV Project. Time will tell the truth as it is told for the KV project.
    Here is my old post about Buldania Project;Post #:47431061

    Moora Projects;
    Two prospects
    1) Mt Yule-Felton corridor Gold-PGE project
    2) Bindi Bindi Nickel-PGE Project

    There is huge potential in terms of geological similarities with Julimar discovery and also the research done by the gov. departments before. (see my first old post listed below).
    We discussed and talked about them a lot. I don't want to go into details again.

    Post #: 49436973
    Post #:44594144

    If we find anything even half value of what CHN has found that would add at least $500m to LTR's market value (which would add at least 30c to the sp). (Don't shoot me for that, I am conservative.)

    And.., KV Project
    No need to say anything IMO. One has to be stupid for not to understand the value of this project after making a little bid of research about the world EV, battery and lithium markets.

    Post #: 48102488
    "My very conservative valuation for KV Project is at least 70c per share".

    I am saying conservative because LTR also has Buldania Lithium project and two projects in Moora (Gold+PGE at Mt Yule-Felton corridor and Nickel+PGE at Bindi Bindi). Not mentioning about the Toolebuc Vanadium project at all. No value is implied to the sp for those projects.

    Q: Where does the 70c/share come from?
    A: It comes from the market cap of $1.2b ($1.2b / 1.7b shares= 0.70c)

    Q: Where does the $1.2b MC come from?
    A: It comes from the WES- KDR deal, by benchmarking.
    WES paid $545 per tonne of Li2O to KDR (see below for details)

    LTR has 156mt @1.40% Li2O (not including 0.10% Li2O equivalent for tantalum credits)
    Contained Li2O: 2,184,000t
    2,184,000t x $545/t = $1.2b

    KDR had half of 189mt @1.50% Li2O resource which had 1,417,500t L2O (half of 2,835,000t).
    1,417,500t x $545/t = $772m.

    You can see them all on this table below.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2559/2559772-b2923cb293edecb2fcc6e889a057becb.jpg


    TANTALUM CREDIT IS HUGE COST CUTTING ADVANTAGE
    LTR's tantalum credit makes 16.7% cost saving on the cost of spod concentrate.

    Tantalum (Ta2O5) credit is calculated in detail on the PFS update.
    The reserves (not the resources) contains 9100t of tantalum oxide.

    The sale price of tantalum concentrate is quite expensive. It was given on the PFS;

    Average Tantalum 30% conc. (US$ per pound FOB Fremantle 2025-2040); ~US$70/lb
    That makes; US$155/kg = AU$220/kg or AU$220,000/t

    See the first column on the "Operating Cost Estimate" table below.

    Tantalum credit is US$52/t in per tonne of spod concentrate.

    It brings the cost down from US$ 313/t to US$261.
    That implies to a 16.7% cost saving from the spod concentrate.




    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2559/2559794-0c83b69b10abb99a00cc7e6e71680c39.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2805/2805709-8ca990d69e8782ee23792d221c79e2a7.jpg


    Producing spod concentrate is not cheap as you can see. That's why many of the previous producers made wrong calculations and messed up everything. Bringing the cost down is not something like making a magic on the announcement papers.

    LTR is not cheating itself while making those cost calculations. This PFS has been done very realistically and it is extremely professional.

    I have had a good knowledge of other PFS and DFS from KDR, PLS, etc. (not mentioning about PLL, they have only a scoping study but it look very poor nothing in comparison to LTR's PFS). None of them can come close to LTR's PFS.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    When it comes to the low market cap of LTR atm...

    It will be balanced soon @vmp.
    No doubt about it.

    See PLS's historical chart which I have done long time ago.
    Its market cap went to $2b in 2018 when they just starting mining.
    Its sp started to rise when they awarded the open mine contract for deelopment of the lithium mine. At that time their MC was nearly $500m.

    And now you can imagine what would be the sp of LTR when they start flowing the news about KV Project.

    Good luck to everyone.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2805/2805703-f53f490a10b0579df5c697ca5d99779c.jpg

 
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