A rough approximation to establish a gross, undiscounted, in ground value of a potential 2P Reserve declaration post Lorelle 3 drill & testing (Q2/Q3 - 2026)....again...this is highly risked inground "value".....NOT what someone will pay us to take!
DYOR etc etc- PLEASE amend/alter/contribute
Inputs:
- Current 1057 BCFe of 2C in atp2056 (50% w/ Santos)
- AEMO converts 1 BCFe to 1.102PJ
- PJ value ranges from $1m AUD (see Richard Cottees Nov 2025 GAS 2C to 2P (conventional gas) booking and estimated valuation range in initial thread post above) to Stuart Nicholls mention on 25th Nov Webinar that East Coast value approx up to $2m AUD p/PJ)
- Current shares on issue (inc OMA Tranche 1 of 339m) as of 3/12/2025- 1.75billion
- Modelling assumes Tranche 2 (OMA/Nero) of 65m and ALL Options/rights are eventually issued by end of 2026
So, as an example (yellow highlight):
Converting 30% of current 2C to 2P Reserve- (for our 50% share) equates to:
158.55 BCFequivalent
=174.72 PJ
@$1.5m AUD p/PJ
= 12.4c gross undiscounted in ground value per share (of 2.112 billion SOI) for just our 50% share of ATP2056
*DYOR- amateur modelling at play- amend/alter/comment etc etc
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