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ASC 1.6¢

EV/EBITDA Multiple

  1. If we look at the announced cash flow then operating cash flow was $18,752. Therefore, being that receipts from customers was $75m versus expected revenue of $81m we can expect a further net receivable of say $1.5m to make a total EBITDA number. This would make the FY02 EBITDA approximately $20m.

    So now calculate multiple
    THIS FINANCIAL YEAR (ACTUAL)
    Mkt Cap $85.4m (based on 28 cents)
    Cash $17.5m
    EV $67.9m
    EBITDA $20.0m

    EV/EBITDA 3.3x

    FORECAST FY03 (Based on doubling 1st half projection)
    Mkt Cap $85.4m (based on 28 cents)
    Cash $17.5m
    EV $67.9m
    EBITDA $41.0m

    EV/EBITDA 1.6x

    Therefore, based on your market multiples of 9.4x and 8.2 for FY02 and FY03 ASC is currently undervalued by a factor of 4x. This excludes as well the relatively lower capital required for ASC versus the entire service sector market. Other than the industry segment taking the multiple lower the multiple for ASC should be higher than the market average.

    Either way even as long as it holds its mulltiple over the next 12 months the returns should be in excess of 100%. Better than most investments out there at the moment.

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