KZA 1.64% 60.0¢ kazia therapeutics limited

estimates and market values

  1. 22,691 Posts.
    From Ozestock post 5948:

    # Valuations and what the market is prepared to pay.

    1. Post 5920 gives some share valuations. At present we have $88 mill tax losses to come and there will be more by June 30.

    So, I am ignoring tax for at least the first year and there may not be any tax for the second year either. That should give NRT a very good start.

    2. Year 1 to start with a positive Announcement on the receipt of defensible Isoflavone Patents and a Commercial Agreement on NV07a.

    The numbers I gave to start from those dates. Most posters will accept that both will take place this year.

    3. Share valuation and P/E.
    In the cases below a P/E of 20 was applied-see post 5920:

    3.1 Ignoring Cash, NV04 and some other prospective drugs, the valuation: $12.05.

    3.2 Ignoring the Phenox trials, NV04 and other prospective drugs, as well as cash, then the share valuation is $9.55.

    However, the market may want to apply a P/E of 15 instead; then the market value in 3.1 becomes: $9.03 and in 3.2 it will be $7.16.

    The market may also decide to apply a P/E of 15 and discount these results say by 35%. The market values then become $5.87 and $4.65.

    It is possible that the market will discount by an alarming 50% and maintain a P/E of 15.

    The market values will then be $4.51 and $3.58( without trials etc).

    Provided the Isoflavones Patents are issued and deemed defensible, then a share price of $3.58 is a conservative one IMHO.

    So even if a very close estimate of the share valuation were made then the market will still value the stock as it sees fit. And as we know it is subject to a lot of factors just now, one being the lack of investment money.

    Readers, please do your own research before investing. I am not a financial advisor.

    Gerry


 
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