EL8 CHART, page-920

Can EL8 hold the 30 level?
.
From a weekly perspective, EL8 had a decent drop - from 33 to 30.5. I play at 29.5 as well, so below 30. I had written last weekend that if 32/33 level does not look like holding, very good chance of 30 or below play. It happened accordingly. But its holding 30 level. Which is good. Some positivity, straight to 32.5, then to 35.5 and some more positivity, 39 comes into play. It can be so fragile. But, if things go south, suddenly 28 and then 26. Personally I picked up a few at 30.5 and some at 30 this week. Still holding. Hoping for an upward play. Till now no signs of that, but can change. So hoping.
.
So what is that macro game? For those reading my posts, I use CCJ share price and Spot price as indicators. It doesn't mean they dictate what is going to happen, but a reflection of what may be happening. Hence I use those as indicators. Not drivers. But indicators.
.
CCJ is doing to and fro, uncertain of direction. It reached 135 in end of Jan. I have been writing that, based on previous patterns, it may take 1 month or 2 months to cross that figure again. One month has passed. We will reach 2 months end of March/first week of April. That's a possibility now.
.
So after it reached 135 end of Jan, what is CCJ doing? Playing in an undecisive zone. Between 108/126 level. Consolidating. getting ready. Not ready yet, it seems. The drop to 108/110 zone represent 20% drop from its high. Its a critical level. Its important that it holds that level, else, 100 comes into picture. Since end of Jan there has been 4 instances, where CCJ has come into the 108/110 (+/-) level. Good news is that in all 4 cases that has been held. The bad news is that its not able to get over mid 120s. So we wait. For CCJ to get out of the indecisive zone.
.
CCJ yesterday had a small drop. Its at 115. Right in middle of indecision. Which way will it go?
.
The Spot too is not helping. For a big rise, we want Spot closer towards 90, rather than 85. This whole week, 85 has acted as a magnet, pulling it down whenever it gets a thought of moving away. So Spot price is not helping the cause of a big rise at this stage.
.
The question is - how will we go from here? All my plays are short-term, so I am talking for next few weeks only. Mid-term and Long-term the play can be different. So please factor that its only short-term I talk.
.
The other factor which is killing us is the general markets. lots of these theories around consolidation, levels etc are more important for a neutral general market. So that we can concentrate on U play only. We all know that war is having a big impact on general markets, on the downside. So its becoming more difficult. Lot of people exit, new people don't enter, especially those risk averse. So that is not helping the cause. It can lead to unusual patterns - eg instead of 1 month, 2 months, we can be stuck here for several months. Even go down. A large drop can happen. So that factor has to be included in any assessment. We don't know what will happen. My theory is of neutral general markets, so not taking some negative effects.
.
I had a couple of posts this week on different threads. Anyone interested, may have a read. As my writing today is continuation of that theme.
.
This is my post on Tuesday -

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/bmn-general-discussion.8390480/page-6#post-83184161


This is my post on Wednesday -

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/the-squeeze-is-on.7311690/page-40#post-83199438

The gist of the writing was that CCJ holding 108/110 level, but not able to break the zone.
.
Personally, I am playing the U sector big time. I have taken a punt that CCJ/Spot and U stocks in near future will reverse and we will do much higher gains. There may be a lot of hope in that statement. But I have a gut feeling based on patterns, that it may happen in next few weeks. That's my punt. It may not happen and it could be all south from here. So please dyor as we may have different risk/reward conditions.
.
So what may happen tonight, which may affect how we open on Monday? On Tuesday, when CCJ was at 120, I had written, that even things don't go well, if CCJ can finish 116 it will be good. It didn't. It finished at 115. So the positivity was lost. It continued yesterday, non-positivity theme. But yesterday, again CCJ reached 110. This was the 4th time it reached 110 and it held. So that is very, very positive. Intent is there, but not enough support. If things go bad tonight, but CCJ holds 108/110 level, that is not positive, but can be considered another test of lower levels. If it holds, that will be good. A slight positive would be 116+. A good positive will be 120+. Not sure what is going to happen. But there is a pattern since end of Jan since it reached 135. It has not had 3 red in a row. Yesterday was the second red. Futures looking red, but pattern saying CCJ may do a green. My gut feel is that CCJ may still hold 108/110 level. My gut feel is that it may do a green based on pattern, maybe not much, but still a green. As long as 108/110 is held, the odds of doing a big one in next several weeks is good. In fact, very good. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best