ALA 3.45% 15.0¢ arovella therapeutics limited

Hi wasa I am very sorry for the situation that you are in...

  1. 3,958 Posts.
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    Hi wasa

    I am very sorry for the situation that you are in regarding your SUDA investment but the good news is that there is a possibility that you will recoup a large part of your losses.

    A ~70% rise from current levels will see us hit the current valuation Edison has on the company. That is a valuation that is based virtually solely on the 70% chance of success for our one product that is approved in one country only.

    There is little doubt that the TGA approval along with the existing FDA approval will significantly increase the chances that Mitsubishi as well as Teva will be able to have their Zolpimist submissions approved by the regulators in those counties. I see this likelihood of regulatory approval in the 80-90% range. This will trigger milestones and ultimately royalty revenue for the company.
    This is not being factored into the current valuation so I see this as meaningful upside.

    And of course there is the co-development work the company is doing for Cann, Zilera, Ordesa, and Sanofi. This is tangible work that is occurring now and while the status of most of this remains highly confidential even if one of the 4 programs advances this promises to be hugely beneficial for the company.
    This is not being factored into the current valuation so I see this as meaningful upside.

    There is the existing product suite that SUDA has in particular 001 Sumitriptan (for migraines) and then 003 Durom!st for ED. They remain key projects for the company as evidenced by their inclusion in the FY report announcement on Monday which means that R&D work continues on both of these. We have an agreement with company for one of these, but there is more upside here.
    This is not being factored into the current valuation so I see this as meaningful upside.

    And finally Anagrelide. We all know about the massive opportunity here for a sublingual cancer treatment that can reduce platelets without the cardio toxic implications of the existing delivery method. We have heard very little except that one product in a pk trial appeared to be able to achieve this in an animal model.
    A lot more to be said here but this is not being factored into the current valuation so I see this as meaningful upside.

    I wont mention the prospect of bringing in assets into the organisation because that is an unknown known. What we do know is that they have demonstrated by what happened a few months ago that they are thinking big.

    A lot of what I have posted above is not factored into the 8c valuation and that is entirely reasonable given the lack of tangible evidence of progress.
    But the small cap speccy end of the market (which SUDA firmly is with a $15m market cap) often is priced based on the speculation and punters trying to get ahead of what can be released by the company.

    The fact that we are trading 70% below the 8c valuation, and not above it, to me signals a tremendous risk reward opportunity.
 
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Last trade - 16.10pm 29/03/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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