dow-nas- s&p what happened??, page-2

  1. 13,600 Posts.
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    well it did not surprise me as I bought S&P put w/-s the day before for various reasons. plus 2 points-thurs-down 10 points-fri-allowing for the mkt maker I should be in front.The ideal situation is an online US trading a/c, maybe one day.

    the DOW touched a 14 month high with bankruptcies at an all time high, unemployment at or near a recent high(would be higher but the power went off, remember that)the states are up to their neck in debt- haven't you heard Arnie's spruik & he is backed by Buffett & California is the 5th biggest economy in the world, General motors made a reported profit (from memory) of $940 million of which $900 odd was from hire purchase, in other words, debt & with no repayments for 12 months the debt is probably worth more than the vehicles. especially if the owners cannot pay up & give them back. I suppose another General Motors subsiduary company writes the insurance.
    Then many companies have no provision for superannuation which is more debt.True interest rates are on the rise & since when has that been a positive for the stock mkt. The dollar has been a tad stronger in the past month or so which does not help the balance of payments which is more than 5% (actually 5.1%) of GDP which is the trigger for currencies to crash a la Indonesia, Argentina etc etc. By the way had you bought gold in those countries before the crash you would have made a currency killing which could explain the recent rise in gold even though the US$ was also stronger(read jim sinclair).

    then we have the price of metals. Ask yourself, are they cheap. Oil, is it cheap. In the US the cost of health is up, electricity is up, the cost natural gas is through the roof.

    So how the hell do you expect US mkts to keep going up when the DOW yield is 2.30% with a p/e of 30.01 & bonds are paying around 4.8%.
    Earnings have not improved with 13 interest rate cuts & the refi mkt has given the consumer some more money to spend as loans repayments were less but with int rates on the up no more refi, no more 'spare' money to spend.
    Oh dear! I fear the beginning of the big down is not to far away & for the bears that is very positive. Get set....................................

    Also remember that as the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, something has to happen to restore the balance even if it is a long time coming, come it will.

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