GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

31/8 price action was the first clue that circa 1300 was a KEY...

  1. 40,618 Posts.
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    31/8 price action was the first clue that circa 1300 was a KEY level as the smart money hunted the stops. If I am correct, as they spike the price down (Asian session at the time) they had big buy orders waiting to soak up the bull sell stops trigger. Using this hypothesis, it isn't likely for them to repeat the same exercise as the smart money has a 'line in the sand'.

    I jumped into some goldies late lastweek but the timing isn't exactly the perfect timing. If today is another guide just like yesterday, the equities are factoring a low in the gold price in the current swing. There is however additional negative and that is the WA royalty gold fees that is under consideration for hiking. This is the equivalent to the failed RUDD MRRT but it created a lot of unnecessary volatility at the time, great for those on the sideline playing the swing but discomfort for the longer term holders.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5

    Currently all eyes on the inflation (net) which has bounced off the very low of Zero and if price can maintain very low real inflation then I think gold will continue to head north. They way I see it is a 2 pronged attack on low inflation through economic numbers/rate rise OR reduction of the massive USTB on the Fed's Balance Sheet. This is a 'chicken or egg' scenario being if those economic numbers do not stimulate inflationary pressures then how are they going to reduce their bond holding thereby jacking up corporate lending cost since credit spreads between govt/corporate would technically increase if govt bond yields start rising. This will then feed back to an economy on paper is doing well but in reality suffers low inflation! This is my understandings as since I have never picked up a Economics textbook, can someone identify any flaws in my understandings please?

    Meanwhile I need to focus on the technical chart since FA is usually built into the price with the countless economics analysts providing reasons for their major clients to either get in or out of exposure.

    Not much chatter lately, what's going on?
 
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