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DJIA and ASX charts - Nickoo, Grant62

  1. pj

    2,090 posts.
    With all this discussion thought it might be an opportune time to repost a response I made earlier in the year to Ridge who was asking for opinions on the direction of the markets. This contains two "home made charts" which I have been unable to update as the FTP thingo program I use to update them doesn't seem to be working for me and my son who is the eexpert is out at the girlfriends as usual.

    So you need to imagine for the Dow for example an extra bar drawn from 10500 down to 8000 for the year 2002 so far. This (just and only just!) breaks the lower long term uptrend line.

    Nickoo's scenario looks nice and symmetrical on the chart, but I do hope Grant 62 is right!


    ps I have tacked Nickoo's reply at that time on the end - he wasn't quite so bearish at that time!!

    Message Big Decision To Make - Views Wanted (read 471 times; 2 replies)
    Conference ASX
    Posted Sat 29-Sep-01 17:05


    Member pj
    Email Address [email protected]
    Member Since 5-Jun-00
    No. Connections 577
    No. Posts 271

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    Hi Ridge and all others in this thread,

    I posted these home made long term log scaled charts once before and have updated them to reflect the current position in the century perspective. I hope this will be useful.

    http://members.iinet.net.au/~peterj1/public_html/public_html/HC/dowcent1.jpg


    http://members.iinet.net.au/~peterj1/public_html/public_html/HC/asx1.jpg




    Of course I don't know what the future holds. The Dow is still strictly just in long term uptrend but history suggests this rate of appreciation cannot be sustained any longer without at least a pause.

    If it is sustained we can still see the ASX progress through to 6000 following channel B - B.

    If you are lookin for a long side ways consolidation of the DJIA over the next 10 - 15 years similar to 1970 - 1982 then the ASX could continue on nudging the upper trend line of channel A - A (sorry I've not drawn this quite parallel to the century trend channel C - C). Note the shift in trends from C - C to A - A since the introduction of dividend imputation - well that's my explanation.

    A long sideways consolidation could still include revisitations to DJIA 12000 and above - well above current levels.

    If you are looking for a capitulation 1929 style, then Nickoo's "worst" scenario of DJIA 6000 looks rather optimistic. There seems to be good solid support at 1200 don't you think?

    If the long term trend A - A on the ASX holds true we are due for a visit to the lower trend line sometime and it could be soon. As Nickoo says 2000 to 2200 should do it.


    peterj


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    Reply by nickoo to pj (8 of 29)


    Message Big Decision To Make - Views Wanted (read 396 times; 1 reply)
    Conference ASX
    Posted Sat 29-Sep-01 19:51


    Member nickoo
    Email Address withheld
    Member Since 18-Feb-00
    No. Connections 1280
    No. Posts 715

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    PJ,

    I love the charts you've provided.

    The scrunched paper and the lines all over
    the place are great- they add a touch of
    authenticity and mistique (a bit like a
    pirates map).

    Re your projection of Dow 1,200 if things get
    really bad- that's really scary!

    I based my 6,000 for the Dow on a graph i've
    set up on Bigcharts.com

    I used data from 1970 (alot less
    comprehensive than yours), and a lograthimic
    scale.

    Infact, i've had a closer look at the chart i
    have, and it's showing approx 8,000-not 6,000 as i previously stated.

    Let's hope it holds, or else the next level
    may be your 1,200.


    Yikeeessss !
    <>




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