Day trading pre-market open March 4

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Negative as the ASX plays catch-up with heavy falls on Asian and European markets and lesser falls in the US.

ASX futures: down 124 points or 1.37%


Overnight themes: ​

• US stocks fell overnight but closed well above session lows after President Donald Trump said the US navy will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing a major choke-point that has sent energy prices soaring and threatens to reignite global inflation. The announcement helped cool a global market sell-off that earlier sent European and Asian stock benchmarks down more than 3%. ​
• The S&P 500 slashed a mid-morning loss of around 2.5% to 0.94% at the close. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed a 1,200-point dive to 404 points or 0.83%. The Nasdaq Composite gave up 1.02%. At their lows, the Dow and Nasdaq were off 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively.​
• Stocks sold off around the globe in the last 24 hours as investors priced in the risk of an extended conflict in the Middle East and a surge in inflation as energy supplies face significant disruption. The US dollar and bond yields rose for a second day. The Asia Dow slumped 3.82% yesterday. South Korea's high-flying Kospi index tumbled 7.24%. The mood in Europe overnight was little better: the pan-European Stoxx 600 shed 3.08%. Stock benchmarks in Germany, France and Italy all lost at least 3.4%.​
• US stocks opened deep underwater, then muddled higher after Trump promised the US would "ensure the free flow of energy to the world". He said he had ordered the US Development Finance Corporation to provide risk insurance for ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has warned it will attack any vessels passing through the strait, a major thoroughfare for Middle East oil and gas. Trump also said the US navy would escort tankers passing through the strait "if necessary". “The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH — More actions to come,” he posted on Truth Social.​
• Trump's pledge came as the conflict entered its fourth day. The US embassy in Saudi Arabia's capital was hit by drones. Gulf states continued to be pounded by Iranian missiles and drone attacks. “While not ⁠much has changed fundamentally since yesterday, investors are growing anxious about the duration of the war and its impact on energy prices," Joseph Tanious, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust Asset Management, told Reuters.​
• The stock recovery stalled in the final hours of trade. All 11 S&P sectors closed lower. Falls ranged from 0.18% for financials up to 2.69% for materials. BHP and Rio Tinto came in for particularly heavy treatment in overseas action as traders marked down expectations for global economic growth. ​
• Oil surged to its highest since 2024 as Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli attacks encompassed US assets in several neighbouring crude exporters. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for Middle East oil and gas, warning it will fire on any ship trying to pass through the strait. Iraq announced it was reducing crude production due to pressure on storage space while it is unable to export. "Iran’s retaliation has ⁠been broader than its previous, mostly symbolic measures, and its approach has resulted in several regional flashpoints posing real risk to supply," analysts at Standard Chartered wrote in a note. Brent crude settled US$3.66 or 4.71% ahead at US$81.40 a barrel. The US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, settled US$3.33 higher at US$74.56. European gas futures saw double-digit increases in volatile trade after Qatar and halted LNG production and Saudi Arabia closed its largest refinery. Israel and Iraq also reduced production. ​
• Gold wiped out last week's gains as the US dollar surged for a second day and financial markets priced in a higher risk of interest rate hikes as soaring energy prices feed inflation. The US dollar index climbed to its highest in more than a month, raising prices of dollar-denominated commodities for buyers using other currencies. Spot gold was lately down US$202.73 or 3.81% at US$5,119.96 an ounce after earlier falling as much as 6%. US gold futures settled US$205.40 or 3.87% lower at US$5,106.20. Spot silver plunged as much as 12% before paring its loss to US$6.21 or 6.95% at US$83.07. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs index of US miners dived 8.09%.​
• Aluminium was for a second night the only base metal to advance on the London Metal Exchange as traders bet on lower supply from the Middle East supporting prices. Benchmark LME aluminium rallied 1.96% to US$3,257.16 a metric ton. The Middle East accounts for around 8% of global aluminium production and relies on the Strait of Hormuz to ship its exports. Iran has warned it will attack any ship trying to pass through the strait. A surging US dollar weighed on other dollar-denominated industrial metals. “It’s a new world,” Ben Davis, head of European metals and mining research at RBC Capital Markets, told Reuters. “It was surprising how muted the reaction was yesterday, but markets are clearly catching up now.”​
• Iron ore edged higher despite headwinds from global growth worries and a likely reduction in Chinese steel production during an annual parliamentary meeting that starts tomorrow. In the past, some steel mills have been ordered to halt production to allow cleaner air during the government meeting. Benchmark ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange advanced 0.67% in daytime trade to US$109.32 a metric ton. ​

Key events today: ​

• Q2 GDP - 11.30 am AEDT​
• China manufacturing PMIs - 12.30 pm and 12.45 pm​
• US private payrolls - tonight ​
• US services sector PMI - tonight ​

S&P 500: down 65 points or 0.94%

Dow: down 404 points or 0.83%

Nasdaq: down 232 points or 1.02%

VIX: up 9.24% to 23.42

US 10-year treasury yield: points to %

Dollar: down 0.85% to 70.42 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.67% to US$109.32

Brent crude: up US$3.66 or 4.71% to US$81.40

Gold (futures): down US$205.40 or 3.87% to US$5,106.20

Gold (spot): down US$202.73 or 3.81% to US$5,119.96

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 8.09%

Silver (spot): down US$6.21 or 6.95% to US$83.07

Bitcoin: down 1.24% to US$68,197

Copper (LME): down 1.09% to US$12,964.50

Nickel (LME): down 0.41% to US$17,135

Lithium carbonate (China battery grade): down 6.85% to 20,664 yuan

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 6.59%

Antimony (USA): steady at US$17 per lb

Uranium (spot): down 0.12% to US$86.45

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 7.82%

BHP: down 5.64% (US); down 3.35% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 4.31% (US); down 3.22% (UK) ​