Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.
Outlook for the day: Futures action implies the share market will shoot for a fourth-straight gain despite dips in key commodities and a broadly flat night on Wall Street.
ASX futures: up 20 points or 0.23%
Overnight themes:
US stocks closed little changed as mixed economic data failed to move the needle significantly on interest rates ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
The S&P 500 hovered around break-even for much of the session before closing 0.11% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 32 points or 0.07%. The Nasdaq Composite overcame several dips into the red to close 0.22% ahead.
Fewer jobs were cut last month, but the US remained on track for its worst year for job losses since the pandemic, according to a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Layoffs last month were less than half the October total of 153,000, which was the biggest round of job cuts in 22 years. However, the November total of 73,000 was the first time since the GFC that November layoffs have risen above 70,000. This year's total job cuts of 1.17 million are 54% higher than the same 11-month period last year. A separate report showing an unexpected dive in first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week had limited impact, with economists pointing to the timing of the Thanksgiving holiday as an explanation.
A report on factory orders that was delayed by the federal government shutdown showed October orders grew just 0.2%, missing expectations for growth of 0.5%.
The odds on rate cut next week hovered around 87% following the data. "Everybody's waiting around to see what the Fed thinks with any of this data that they've seen come in because the last comments from Powell were a little bit on the hawkish side, but cuts are fully expected," Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, told Reuters.
Stock gains were kept in check by a rise in treasury yields. The US 10-year yield climbed back above 4.1%, pressuring sectors that compete with bonds for investment flows. The session's worst-performing sectors were health -0.73% and consumer staples -0.73%. The best of the sectors were industrials +0.51% and tech +0.43%. Of the two sectors that matter most on the ASX, financials edged up 0.24% and materials declined 0.48%.
Copper took a modest step back from record levels as the premium between cash copper and copper futures started to ease, implying this week's panic buying was abating. The spread between the London Metal Exchange cash copper contract and three-month forward contract shrank to US$62 per ton from US$88 on Wednesday. Copper futures his a record US$11,540 on Wednesday as the blowout in spread pushed prices sharply higher. Overnight, benchmark LME copper eased 0.47% to US$11,434 after trading as high as US$11,529.
Silver retreated from Wednesday's all-time high as rising treasury yields and a rebound in the US dollar from one-month lows dented demand for alternative stores of wealth. Spot silver was lately down US$1.48 or 2.52% to US$57.01 an ounce. The spot price hit a record US$58.98 on Wednesday night. Gold was broadly steady ahead of US inflation data tonight. Spot gold was lately up US$4.20 or 0.1% to US$4,207.43 an ounce. Earlier, US gold futures settled US$10.50 or 0.2% ahead at US$4,243. "Higher yields are keeping a bit of a cap on the upside," Marex analyst Edward Meir told Reuters.
Iron ore declined for a second session in China as the first shipment from Rio Tinto's part-owned Simandou mega-mine in Guinea made its way towards China. The Winning Youth set sail from West Africa on Tuesday and was expected to reach China next month. The US$23 billion mine is expected to become one of the largest in the world, marking a shift from the traditional Australia-Brazil duopoly and challenging the economic dynamics of the current supply chain. Benchmark ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange eased 0.63% to US$112.42 per metric ton.
Key events today:
S&P 500: up 7 points or 0.11%
Dow: down 32 points or 0.07%
Nasdaq: up 51 points or 0.22%
VIX: down 0.81% to 15.95
US 10-year treasury yield: up 3.8 points to 4.105%
Dollar: up 0.12% to 66.12 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): down 0.63% to US$112.42
Brent crude: up 59 US cents or 0.94% to US$63.26
Gold (futures): up US$10.50 or 0.2% to US$4,243
Gold (spot): up US$4.20 or 0.1% to US$4,207.43
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 0.78%
Silver (spot): down US$1.48 or 2.52% to US$57.01
Antimony (China ore): down 0.03% to US$18,795
Bitcoin: down 0.49% to US$92,515
Copper (LME): down 0.47% to US$11,434
Nickel (LME): up 0.07% to US$14,885
Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): down 0.4% to US$11,739
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 1.36%
Uranium (spot): steady at US$76.25
Global X Uranium ETF (URA): up 5.56%
BHP: up 1.8% (US); up 0.69% (UK)
Rio Tinto: down 0.71% (US); down 0.18% (UK)
