Day trading pre-market open December 11

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: The share market looks poised to reverse three days of losses following a US rate cut and gains in key commodities, including iron ore and copper.

ASX futures: up 76 points or 0.89%


Overnight themes: ​

• US stocks surged after the Federal Reserve lowered official rates and indicated it still expected to cut again next year as the economy regains traction. ​
• The S&P 500 marked time for much of the session before kicking to a gain of 0.67% after the Fed's afternoon announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 497 points or 1.05%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed out of the red to a gain of 0.33%.​
• "When the Fed is cutting rates and the economy is not headed into an imminent downturn or recession, markets tend to like that backdrop," Mona Mahajan, head of investment strategy at Edward Jones, told Reuters.​
• Stocks took wing and the dollar extended earlier weakness after the Fed cut the federal funds rate for the third time this year to a range of 3.5% - 3.75% and announced plans to buy short-term bonds. The central bank also softened its language around employment in a sign it may focus more on jobs and less on inflation next year. The bank raised its 2026 GDP target to 2.3% from 1.8% and left its unemployment forecast unchanged at 4.4%. Investors were relieved the bank maintained its outlook for another rate cut next year despite indications it will take its time before cutting again. ​
• “I would note that having reduced our policy rate by 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points since last September, said funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value and we are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference following this morning's announcement.​
• Futures pricing indicated the market still expected the bank to go harder next year than Powell has indicated. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed fed funds futures have priced in a 68% chance of at least two cuts next year. ​
• Nine of eleven S&P sectors advanced. The night's best were industrials +1.84%, consumer discretionary +1.52% and materials +1.77%. The financial sector put on 1.13%. Two sectors missed the upswing: utilities -0.11% and consumer staples, which was unchanged. ​
• Market rumours of Chinese government plans to subsidise mortgages boosted copper and iron ore. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange firmed 0.63% to US$11,559.50 per metric ton after whispers of a US$57 billion stimulus package lit a fire under Chinese property stocks yesterday. The struggling property sector is a major customer for copper and steel. The rumours followed a report on Tuesday showing China factory-gate prices contracted by a deeper-than-expected 2.2% last month, a sign that domestic demand remained weak after almost three years of shrinking prices. "A lot of the data recently from China was all pretty abysmal on construction, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if there's going to be more stimulus to keep that part of the economy going," Dan Smith, managing director at Commodity Market Analytics, told Reuters. Iron ore rebounded sharply from a four-session losing run. Benchmark ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange bounced 1.85% to US$108.90 a metric ton. ​
• Silver hit a new high in volatile trade as traders reacted to the Fed rate cut and policy statement. Spot silver lifted its all-time high to US$61.61 an ounce early in the session. The spot price was lately up 83.5 cents or 1.38% at US$61.48 after briefly turning negative this morning. Spot gold was lately ahead US$21.28 or 0.51% at US$4,229.45 an ounce. Earlier, US gold futures settled US$5.70 or 0.1% lower at US$4,230.50. "All you really want to make note of right now is some light profit-taking ahead of the Fed meeting - a very highly anticipated event later this afternoon," David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, told Reuters before the Fed announcement. ​

Key events today: ​

• November jobs report - 11.30 am AEDT (expected: +20,000 jobs; 4.4% unemployment)​
• US weekly unemployment claims - tonight​

S&P 500: up 46 points or 0.67%

Dow: up 497 points or 1.05%

Nasdaq: up 78 points or 0.33%

VIX: down 6.91% to 15.76

US 10-year treasury yield: down 3.9 points to 4.151%

Dollar: up 0.6% to 66.79 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 1.85% to US$108.90

Brent crude: up 27 US cents or 0.44% to US$62.21

Gold (futures): down US$5.70 or 0.1% to US$4,230.50

Gold (spot): up US$21.28 or 0.51% to US$4,229.45

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 1.55%

Silver (spot): up 83.5 US cents or 1.38% to US$61.48

Antimony (China ore): up 0.09% to US$18,553

Bitcoin: down 0.64% to US$92.491

Copper (LME): up 0.63% to US$11,559.50

Nickel (LME): down 0.51% to US$14,675

Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): up 0.03% to US$11,582

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 1.53%

Uranium (spot): up 0.98% to US$77

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 0.85%

BHP: up 2.56% (US); up 1.62% (UK)

Rio Tinto: up 2.45% (US); up 1.43% (UK) ​