crusty survivor or crumbly morsel?, page-2

  1. 753 Posts.

    ANL is not in the same league as the nickel laterite stock of which I own shares, which is Heron.

    I inteprete today's announcement as Glencore rightfully doing what it was agreed back in late 1990s, and Glencore would not miss an opportunity to tighten the screws it has on ANL.

    Glencore owns 46.3% of ANL and 40% of Murin-Murin that giving it an implied state in Murin-Murin of 68%.

    It is unlikely that Glencore would walk away from its ANL/Murin-Murin investement, and it proved once before that is willing to take control of ANL by underwritting the rights issue, only to be spoiled by MatlinPaterson, to small degree.

    Thus Glencore would do anything to get to 50%, and tightening the screws on ANL is simply what I would have done if I had the opportunity and in Glencore's position.

    ANL is sitting on billions of dollars of tax losess and would probably not have to pay tax for years, and if Murin-Murin with a great boost from Heron's superior ore, could be cream de la cream for Glencore. or infact its next owner.

    It is highly unlikely that MatlinPateron would ever gain control of ANL and they can either sell out to Glencore or dump their ANL shares, or try to counter act Glencore.

    The more Glencore tightens the screws on ANL the less comfortbale MatlinPatterson position becomes, becasue they have to act, act quickly and decisively.

    Unless they admit that they couldn't see the trees from the forest and its ANL plunge was ill-concived.

    What happens from here on is quite interesting, both from an educational point of view as well as possible opportunities for the laterite stock I own.

    I have never owned any ANL shares and do not want to as I think HRR is a better proposition.

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