KAR 5.41% 78.0¢ karoon energy ltd

Hi Yellow you've inspired me to make a come back on HC though I...

  1. 95 Posts.
    Hi Yellow you've inspired me to make a come back on HC though I read comments avidly and daily all the time.

    I'll keep this nutshell style if I can:

    Kar cash reserves= $225 Mill v MEO cash reserves=$17.2 Mill
    So a bit over ten times as much cash.
    KAR market cap $1,858 Mill V MEO market cap 148 $Mill (yesterday's closing data current on comsec as I write)

    So it's safe to say Kar is about ten times larger in both those respects. Now I want to forget about Kar's Brazil and MEO's Tassie Shoal prospects for my analysis as they might as well be boutique projects (I KNOW THEY'RE NOT) as all I care about is the main game here: IE WHAT ARE THEY DRILLING HERE NOW or SOON in Australia. Those other company making deals may happen but are irrelevant IMO as the major company making TCF potential in short term is Browse/Carnavon for these two companies.

    SO keeping nutshell theme as best I can (I know I know this nutshell's turning into a large macadamia at this point),

    Kar target 16-20 TCF v MEO 9.5 TCF (Artemis) and rising due to 3D work appraisal at present.

    Final main difference Kar have farm-in Partner in Conoco (oil Major) to do all the heavy lifting in terms of capex as they already are with the wells (around about $250 mill or so).

    Meo are about to get this in next several weeks as they close their data room in three weeks to the many oil majors beating a path to their door in the spirit of Conoco with Karoon.

    MEO has 70 percent of Artemis and KAR have around 50 percent of their wells give or take depending on which well ect. MEO will probably Farm Out around 50 percent of artemis if you look at yesterdays report leaving them with a lovely 20 percent of what may be a gas find half as large as Karoon's. Karoon are drilling now and MEO early next year.

    So in conclusion MEO is very, very similar to Karoon in the projects I mentioned (i'm not concerned with the rest IN THE SLIGHTEST) but several months behind in terms of development, and half the size of course in TCF target. Karoon has a farm in partner and a market cap ten times as large.

    So MEO is more high risk and that's the exact reason I went all in again two days ago on MEO after selling out before this latest rise. Risk to reward ratio is paramount. Higher the risk, higher the reward. This final point is and has always been unarguably and an empirical fact.

    In spite of this I am equally in love with Karoon personally and agree with Bob in the Kohler interview they should be closer to $18 Bill market cap a al Hess et al.

    Therefore my KAR target for early/mid next year is approaching 100 dollars a share if wells go as planned. In short KAR is the new FMG. We'll see if this post was correct in eight months to a year.

    If MEO farm out 50 percent I'll just be conservative and go with the figure company gave in y'days presentation of 830 mill market cap or two dollars a share, though I believe it could head to well over four a share in reality if Artemis TCF heads over 12.5 as is now being talked about with latest info and gas prices go for what they have in some recent big asian deals, or they don't farm out the full 50 percent and use debt/equity instead.

    Artemis is right next door to Wheatstone of course, and Chevron have Woodside over a barrel with pluto as the Woodside guys are desperate for more gas for more trains to reduce costs for Pluto. And Chevron are playing hardball with Woodside being coy with Wheatstone and may leave Pluto processing out of the loop if they develop Wheatstone at all in near future. So that leaves MEO's 10 TCF potential Artemis as an extremley viable option for Woodside who are desperate for more gas to boost Pluto.

    Now should we all guess who will be fighting tooth and nail against the worldwide majors of Chevron/Conoco/Exon/Shell ect to be MEO's Artemis farm in partner?

    Got Wood anyone?

    I know my nutshell got epic as my posts often do, but in closing I want HC KAR V MEO threads to have a happy big brother/little brother emphasis as I love both these companies equally though I'm all in on MEO atm. I will balance back out to 50 percent of my capital in each soon when the time is right I hope. (I bought Kar at 5ish and sold again at seven! ) So having defended MEO on the Kar thread and talked up my undying love for Kar, I hope both threads can live together in harmony.

    It's 4.00 am and dow's up over 2 percent as is oil. So here's cheers to a solid day tommoro for all in this rising tide.





 
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