RAP 2.63% 19.5¢ resapp health limited

Commercialisation Options

  1. 2,066 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 132
    Well....
    With CE and FDA accreditations now progressing, maybe time to look at commercialisation options.
    I see a number of levels of commercialisation, some of which are obvious, others less so.

    The commercialization could be simpler than anyone imagines.

    1- Plug ins 1
    There are a number of companies out there - and a good example is 'CareClix' that are building suites of Telehealth products over a single interface. To add ResApp as a plug in to their current services would seem a very simple, effective and quick way of market entry. There are dozens of other companies that are doing the same sort of thing. The primary advantage of this being that the market is already established and growing. I imagine that once CE / FDA approval is made, these companies would scramble to get the ResApp plug in to be part of their portfolio.

    2- Plug-ins 2
    The new really big players will want to develop their own Telehealth brands - those with deep pockets, and can effectively buy the best Apps to develop own brand. These players would, I imagine want to control the App, but I do not believe this is where TK and team want to go.
    Prior to the 1st Smartcough debacle, TK said he had a 'figure' in mind for potential t/o - a $2 per share was considered to be a fair valuation at the time. The Smartcough debacle has had a very positive silver lining, in that the Telehealth market has evolved very quickly since, and of course ResApp results have been far more robust since. $2 share t/o just now be considered far too low ($1.5bn m/c) , if the big players want to control the App, the cost must surely be several magnitudes of $2.

    3-Hospitals
    I cannot see hospitals wanting to set up 'stand alone' infrastructure purely to use the ResApp product, and again ResApp would be just one of a suite of products. Again, I would imagine 3rd party providers of suites would likely want to offer a total package to hospitals, whether these be state run or private institutions

    4-GPs
    Stand alone product would be of benefit to GPs, but there will very possibly be resistance to this - as GPs may well feel threatened as this is effectively is competition to them. Saying this, there are large 'medical centres' in many countries that may find having a stand alone product could be viable. Remember the majority of GPs are not 'Florence Nightingales' but as commercially minded as everyone else.

    5-Pharma Companies
    This is an interesting one, reading through a number of Telehealth package providers, many are starting to add 'treatment' tools, is depending on the results of whatever Telehealth app is being used, a recommendation (and in some cases auto prescription) services are included.
    I cannot think for one minute that the major Pharma would want to be left out of this. The Pharma companies have a massive influence on GPs, hospitals etc, very much the tail wagging the dog.

    6-Private individual
    For someone to access the ResApp product at home, is only part of the story, this results of the ;cough' need to go somewhere, and really this would depend on the structure of the service.....again I see the 'suite development' companies taking control over this.

    The Telehealth market is rapidly getting organised, some business structures will fail, and others succeed - it reminds me to a certain extent to the recorded media devices around in the 1980s and 1990s, dozens of formats around, all looking for market share, until Apple came along with the iPod and effectively dominated the market. So will be the same with the various telehealth models - some will work some will not.

    The Telehealth market will also vary from place to place, depending on infrastructure, will, defined problem areas, funding, and culture - so one model fitting all will not work. Irrespective of that the ResApp product is so simple to utilise, that it can be inserted into whatever model works best in any particular location.

    The estimates of the value of Telehealth services in the next 5 years, vary considerably - anywhere between $40bn and $200bn - and even the higher end of this could be very conservative in 5 years time - who knows, I won't try to second guess that! But that is the value of the Telehealth Services, NOT the value of the Telehealth companies, use a p/e of 20:1 and it gives an ideas of the potential value of Telehealth companies.

    So between the potential commercialisation possibilities, Plugs ins to current Telehealth Suite Developers, BIG players, Hospitals, and Pharma Companies, the question is now: Will ResApp sell out, and at what price (I would be disillusioned by anything less that $10 ($7.5 bn m/c) or license the product out to the various commercial option providers. For a $7.5bn m/c at p/e 20:1 revenue would need to be in the order of $350m - to put into perspective, this is $1m / day - at $10 a diagnosis thats a mere 100,000 patients per day. Breaking this back down to geography, if you took the largest 1000 cities in the world, that equates to 100 people per city per day. Spread across all of the commercial options, I would say that this milestone is not only achievable, but inevitable in a very short time.

    So just analysis from a long time holder.
    May well be flaws in my arguments, but this is only a point of discussion.







 
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