Closed on its lows!

TLS is clearly not going any where in a hurry.

The fundamentals imply a share price MUCH LOWER than present over the medium term.

Their group revenues are currently falling... and this is in an environment where one of their annoying competitors (One.Tel) has collapsed, and thus resulted in a return of disgruntled retail customers to the incumbent.

The facts remain that data and mobiles are no longer growth industries.

The introduction of 3G services by Hutchinson (Orange) next year pose a very significant threat to Telstra's position in the mobile market.

... the worrying thing is that TLS has not got a 3G network of their own... which means that they'll have NO STRATEGIC COME BACK if Hutchinson's 3G network proves successful in poaching Telstra MobileNet customers.


It is very possible that in 18 months time we'll see Telstra's Mobile network causing pain accross the group as its revenues fall.

We could be looking at shrinkages in group revenues of greater than 3%.

NO company in Australia can continue trading at 16x earnings in an envirinment of falling revenues of such magnitude.

A more realistic multiple (but still generous) would be 12x earnings... which would place TLS in the $3.50/$3.80 range.


IMHO, TLS's a gonner.

Buying at current prices is very silly imho.

It's going to go alot lower!