Climate , natural cycles and scientific method, page-2

  1. 6,396 Posts.
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    You don't really understand how baselines work. One single annual cycle makes a terrible baseline. Instead, the anomalies you see reported are typically the difference between a day/week/month and the average of that same day/week/month over a long enough period so that year-to-year variation is minimised.

    Ultimately, though, the choice of baseline is quite arbitrary and largely irrelevant - it's the trend that matters, and that is never changed by baselining. The only time it really becomes important is when comparing two datasets (e.g. model vs measurements) - there, a sufficiently long baseline becomes very important if you don't want to draw erroneous conclusions. Conversely, a carefully-chosen short baseline becomes very important if you want to promote erroneous conclusions.
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