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cheech forecasts and precision

  1. cheech

    831 posts.
    I take a great deal of pride in my work and in my forecasting based on knowledge, research and methods.

    Last week I made the froecast that a very rich Australian was going after AMP now apparently in its death throes as we know it. The AFR reported a similar story two days later. I stand by my storey.

    I made the forecast late last year that Bush would not attack Iraq any more than he already had been doing like his father since 1991 even though the prediction was that it would occur before December. It appears unlikely that he will attack. Instead he will continue with the game of brinkmanship and boycotts, increasing tension and pressure in the region to contain all forces except for Israel.

    Oil will fall dramatically within the next 12 weeks. My forecast is based on a model I have used successfully to make similar predictions previously and I rely on its dependebility and reliability for accuracy. There may be a few sharp rises in between but I doubt that very much.

    I forecast BHP's take over and merger 8 months before it happened and it did. Gold was always on the cards and the current rise has nothing to do with Iraq unless you are still tied to the stone age. The demand for gold has always been strong with demand outstripping supply. There is an abundance of the metal and the current rise is a psychologically driven phenomenon. It may come close to $400 but again I dount any real significant increase will be sustainable.

    Goodman Fielder is doing as much behind the scenes work as I forecast as a hostile take over is bad for the company. The skeletons in the closet are rattling very loud and they don't like it. Someone will give in in a behind the scenes arrangement. Goodman Fielder has been overrated, over priced and certainly not managed as one would think. Thats another story and I''' leave it at that.

    A huge scandal is looming at Telstra which has enormous political consequences and will break this year. I have warned about the Telstra 'investment' with Richard Li and so have others. The lids have been kept tight and the hatches battened but the truth hidden from the public because of Telstra's unique structure allowing for the government ot intervene and allow for secrecy.

    Two politicians in the current government and a labour figure will be prominent in the scandal. It involves millions of unaccounted dollars and kickbacks. Mark my words Richard Li is no longer the 'blue eyed ' boy of the Beijing government. He lost his appeal some time back. His father is a different storey. But in the end it is him that telstra bought and Billions are now almost certainly lost.

    Cheers







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