XAO 1.03% 6,048.5 all ordinaries

Chart XAO - nowhere to hide on Black Friday?

  1. 272 Posts.
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    With the US market seriously unwinding overnight it would seem the ASX is likely to be pummelled today. Futures are likely to open 3%+ down here which after yeterday's fall will certainly test trader's reserves.
    In March a fall was both predicted and expected but few predicted the speed and severity. This could be a rerun based on the US' abysmal management of virus containment.
    In March I was expecting a 10% - 15% retracement and by the time that proved to be optimistic I had left my selling a bit late. My chart of the XAO suggests a fall of 4.8% to the lower boundary of the shaded channel could be expected. This would also be the 50% level of the fall from the March high.
    However Elliott Wave is more pessimistic suggesting the recent rally should lose between 50% and 75% of its gains. After the GFC rebound ran out of steam the XAO fell 16%. A fall of current prices to support at 5480 would be a 13% fall.
    My gut feeling is 5480 is where the current fall will go if it breaks down out of the shaded channel.
    I've got about half my trades pegged to consider selling today but will probably wait until market close to make a decision on that.
    Good luck and keep your head down today (PS: I have a range of designer asbestos underwear for anyone in need)
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