In view of the obvious wide approval for Hester's $4.45 forecast...

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    In view of the obvious wide approval for Hester's $4.45 forecast following the webcast some supporting detail from his analysis might be of interest

    Re the BLA for full approval for Revascor he said:
    "We view this as a cunning plan to a) capitalise on the earnings potential of Ryoncil and b) entice a partner for Revascor. A single approval will massively de-risk this asset for a partner, who could then pursue a label expansion in the much larger class II/III heart failure indication with a single Phase 3 confirmatory study"

    He also said with regard to net revenue for FY26 and the 2H26 opex: "it is reasonable to expect 2H26 EBITDA at close to breakeven"

    He believes that MSB's published expectations for market penetration for Ryoncil are set low, due to lack of alternative treatments

    Hester describes the launch of Ryoncil as a "stunning success"

    His expectations of upcoming major catalysts include:
    - 3Q26 revenues (mid March)
    - completion of enrolment for the chronic lower back pain trial by April
    - submission of the BLA for Revascor in the June quarter

    He expects an out-licence deal for the broader HF indication if approval is gained for right side HF in LVAD patients.

    Hester views MSB's clear priority as label expansion for Ryoncil in adult GvHD followed by other inflammatory disease including inflammatory bowel, respiratory and neurodegenerative disease.

    Complete recruitment for the CLBP trial should free up significant resources for concentration on the label expansion for Ryoncil.

    Hester is plainly supportive of MSB strategy, stating: "The focus on the label expansion and improving market penetration for Ryoncil is
    unquestionably the right outcome for shareholders. The share price remains subdued due to the ongoing cash burn, even though it is now abating. MSB is quite rightly going after revenues and earnings in its approved product as a priority to the higher risk strategy in heart failure"


    Last edited by benelong: 03/03/26
 
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