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cedit crunch over: the keynsians were right

  1. 385 Posts.
    The credit crunch and recession are over:

    Some will say it's a premature call, and there is a small chance they will be proved to be right. But I believe the probabilities favour continued improvement in credit market, the economy and the markets, though this will not be linear.

    Yes, debt will linger, and some inflation is likely. But there never was an alternative to this. Let's say policy makers went the Herbert Hoover "do nothing" option and we ended up with 30% unemployment and hundreds of millions living in tent cities as in 1930. Just how long would such a government last before being kicked out replaced by one pledging the Keynsian option? And in that scenario, the recovery would have been longer, more painful and require much more debt to fix.

    If I am proved to be right, we should give credit to the people responsible, the ones who did the hard yards: Geithner, Barney Frank, and yes, above all, Bernanke.

    Sure, they made some mistakes, but they were facing a serious crisis in real time and had to come up with quick solutions. But they got the basics right: go hard, go early. If they had not done that, we would not now be talking about a recovery.
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